• Tuesday, December 18, 2007 Latest Update: 2:08PM

Greentech Solar

Nanosolar Begins Production

The company said it has shipped its first commercial thin-film panels for a project in Eastern Germany.

Nanosolar said Tuesday it has begun production at its San Jose, Calif., facility and has shipped its commercial thin-film panels to its first customer, Beck Energy.

The thin-film startup also announced that it has been selected to supply its Nanosolar Utility Panels for a 1-megawatt solar-power plant, being put together by Beck, on the site of a former landfill in eastern Germany.

"This is the first time that a solar-electricity cell and panel have been designed entirely and specifically for utility-scale power generation," Nanosolar CEO Martin Roscheisen said in a written statement. "It will set the standard for green power generation at utility scale."

On the Web site, Roscheisen called the news "a major milestone" helping to define the industry and said the company had had to overcome what "appeared to be mile-high concrete walls in our path" during five years of product development to get to this point.

Roscheisen claims Nanosolar's copper-indium-gallium-diselenide panels are the world's most efficient and lowest cost thin-film panels and have the lowest accompanying balance-of-system costs (the nonpanel costs, including installation).

He didn't give a number for the efficiency of the panels, but wrote that the panels deliver five times the electric current of any other thin-film panel on the market today.

He added that Nanosolar could profitably sell solar panels for as little as 99 cents per watt, but didn't give information about the price range Nanosolar actually expects to offer -- instead saying that pricing will be based on supply and demand "as in any business."

"Some market segments require lower price points that others," he wrote in an e-mail. "You're going to see a mix of prices. As we ramp volume, you're going to see lower and lower prices in the marketplace. In general, we have no interest in starting a price war with First Solar."

Instead of slicing wafers of silicon crystals to make solar cells, thin-film companies coat plastics, glass or other substrates with thin films of material that convert sunlight into electricity. Thin films can potentially use far less photovoltaic material, an advantage during a worldwide shortage of solar-grade silicon.

But in spite of decades of research, thin films had proven difficult and expensive to produce and had gone nowhere for years. Then companies began bringing new technologies from other high-tech areas, such as semiconductors, and production began growing last year.

Nanosolar isn't the first thin-film company to reach the market.

Last year, First Solar churned out 60 megawatts of its cadmium-telluride cells, becoming the largest solar producer in the United States, according to Travis Bradford, president of the Prometheus Institute, a Greentech Media Research partner (see Thin Films Lead U.S. Solar Production). The company has since grown its annual capacity to 210 megawatts and has announced plans to add another 480 megawatts of capacity (see Thin-Film Solar Production to Leap Forward).

And United Solar Ovonic and Schott Solar are among those producing amorphous-silicon films. United has the capacity to produce 28 megawatts and Schott, which announced that it began production last month, expects to have the capacity to produce up to 33 megawatts by next year (see Thin-Film Solar Gets Another Boost).

But Nanosolar is among the first to market with copper-indium-gallium-diselenide, which is potentially more efficient than other thin-film materials. The company also said last week it was nearing production at its German facility (see Nanosolar Chooses German Town for Solar Plant).

"This could signal the beginning of thin-film solar's ascension -- earlier than most people anticipated," said Eric Wesoff, a senior analyst at Greentech Media.

Wesoff said the efficiency of the units is important to know, but added that if Nanosolar can really sell the panels and make a profit at 99 cents per watt, then Roscheisen and his investors "have kicked absolute ass."

"They have tamed an ornery materials system, scaled up a tricky new manufacturing process and opened a hungry sales channel," he said. "Despite the naysayers -- myself included -- and technical challenges, if these panels ship at the right price in 2008, Nanosolar is a tribute to Silicon Valley technologists and entrepreneurs and VC risk takers."

If things go well, Wesoff also said he would expect a liquidity event in 2008 or 2009. But Nanosolar isn't out of the woods yet, he added.

"On the other hand, these first three commercial units might be conspicuous [in] their lonesomeness and their rarity worthy of an eBay collectible if a lot of things don't go right as they scale to volume production," he said.

One of the company's first three commercial panels is being auctioned on eBay, with the proceeds going to charitable causes.

Comments [3]

  • Frank Berry 12/19/07 5:43 AM

    This is simplythe beginning of a new “way” for American life.  We will quickly move forward,...once,...once appropriate testing and “real life” conditions and output watts have been demonstrated.
    After that,...all bets are off as too how fast such a company can grow, and how much this technology can change the pitiful footprint of our labor pools.
    All the Best/GOD bless us all.

    Reply
  • Norrin Radd 12/19/07 6:41 AM

    Thanks very much Tiny Tim for that insightful comment.  What “new” American way of living are you talking about? 

    Nanosolar is going to need help from above in the form of massive growth capital - hundreds of millions of dollars to finance their expansion.  Look for American companies like Nanosolar to raise European money and build factories at the point of consumption (EU) or in cheaper locales. 

    Reply
  • Ron Nelson 12/19/07 8:38 AM

    Norrin, you may be way off base about the need for massive capital infusions. 

    IF what Martin says is close to being accurate on factory thruput/capex and IF their gross margins are in the 35-50% range, Nanosolar is NOT going to need massive capital infusions for their factories.  Look at FSLR, their capex is $100million for a factory that produces $100MW/yr today.  With their 50% gross margins, their factories are paid off in 12 months of operation.  They are minting money in those factories now!  That’s why they have a market cap of $18billion.  If Nanosolar’s capex is 1/5th that of thinfilm, as claimed on their website, then they are talking $20million for a 100MW factory. 

    The gross margin is the other piece of the puzzle.  At $0.99/W (which is well below FSLR’s $2.40/W), does anyone have enough information on BOM costs to get a handle on what Nanosolar’s gross margins will be?  Anyone have a guess as to what their flexible substrate (with contact) costs them (per m2)?  Same question for the other contact and passivation layers.  Are they using glass as a rigid support?  If so, at what cost?  Are they using just one or two pieces of glass?  How much BOS costs are removed by their higher current panels? 

    Then there’s the other big question, what is their module conversion efficiency?

    Semi

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