Imagine an affluent Massachusetts suburb where EVs really take off, say to 10 percent of the neighborhood homes in a short while. Then, figure that when the owners come home from work at 6:30 p.m. and plug in their cars to recharge they're pulling 3.5 kilowatts from the grid, which is as much or more than their entire house. So now, the house has been lit up, the car is in the garage recharging, and the big screen and some appliances for dinner are also going. And then it's just a matter time before you begin to hear the sound of transformers popping, and the lights go out.
At a Ford Motor Company media day here in Boston this week, the cars – a Ford Focus with a Magna electric drivetrain, a plug-in Hybrid Escape and a 2010 Taurus with THX surround sound – were the big draw. Alongside Ford was National Grid, discussing its vision for a smart grid. For now it means working on standards together, and integrating current smart-metering efforts and business models with the EV industry, so that the impact of the EV isn't overlooked in utility smart grid plans. In the future, assuming EVs take off, things will get more interesting for the power company. Nancy Gioia, director of Ford global electrification, and Stan Blazewicz, global head of technology for National Grid, discussed how the integration of EV charging and smart grid does more than keep transformers from overheating, but is part of a whole new paradigm of utility-controlled load-shifting, renewable energy integration, and distributed energy storage.
This is far easier said than done. The pitch is that EVs will use off-peak power from a utility, thereby taking advantage of lower pricing during these periods of low load. On its surface that feels true, and there are a few studies that claim no new generating capacity will be needed for the first years of EV penetration because of off-peak charging. However, a closer inspection of this idea raises a few questions:
1. At 6 p.m., when many drivers will arrive home and plug in to recharge, utilities are operating in a well-documented second peak of daily demand. Without some kind of intelligent management, this additional load can create havoc in areas with many EVs. It also cuts against the notion that EVs will have little impact on the grid because they will mainly charge during off-peak times.
2. How long will off-peak actually stay off-peak? With increased penetration of EVs, the increased load during off-peak times will inevitably lead to higher pricing and the eventual diminishment of what is now a predictable off-peak timeframe.
3. Stress on the grid. Many of today's utilities with aging networks count on the cool nights to keep their neighborhood transformers from overheating, allowing them a good 10 hours to cool down each evening. With EVs pulling such extreme loads at night, these transformers won't last and will need replacing, increasing the cost to utilities and complicating the economics of smart grid and utility-vehicle integration.
From there we went outside to test drive the cars. I drove the Ford Escape PHEV, one of National Grid's, with Steven Tobias, principal analyst for technology and innovation at National Grid. Even compared to my Prius it was incredibly quiet. There was no annoying beeping on backup and no sound at all while driving out of the lot into South Boston. It did have a great deal of information from the dash about power usage, charging status, etc. "When does the gas engine kick in?" I asked. "When it needs to go over 40, or when you floor it," said Steven. So I floored it. Sure enough, combustion, and a real pleasing kick, threw our heads back into the seats as the tachometer came to life and showed 2000 rpm. It gave us a good ride around the neighborhood, and a sense that this SUV had some life and consumer appeal.
The question is whether the grid is ready for it.







While Kanellos is in Frankfurt, scoping out Electric Vehicles and hanging out with Lamborghinis and models, I'm listening to panels at the Always On Going Green summit. Late Tuesday we heard from a great selection of EV makers and investors in a panel on "Smart Sustainable Automobiles."
Frank Markus, Technical Editor, Motor Trend Magazine was the moderator of a session that tried to answer questions such as:
The panelists represented a wide range of auto startups, from utilitarian vehicles to luxury, "zero trade-off" cars. Here are some of the panelists' comments:
Trae Vassallo, Partner, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers addressed the hydrogen question.

Kevin Czinger, CEO, Coda Automotive

Paul Wilbur, CEO, Aptera

Reuben Munger, Chairman, Bright Automotive

JB Straubel, CTO, Tesla Motors

Listed EV firms
Clare Ondrey, one of Greentech Media's inside stalwarts, somehow got me volunteered to speak at something called The MoneyShow in San Francisco a few weekends ago. It was an unusual event for me – more a retail stock picker show than a renewable energy / technology event, filled with regular citizens looking for info on which stock to invest in. I restricted my comments to market trends and technology and let the speculators make their own stock bets. We don't recommend particular stocks at Greentech Media.
The topic of batteries and electric vehicles was clearly on the mind of these astute investors – and they wanted to invest in EVs. But the problem is that there are no EV firms that trade on the NASDAQ or the Amex (Maybe Tesla can change that soon). The only publicly traded EV firms are on the backwater bourses of the OTC BB and pink sheets. These companies are tightly held, thinly traded and have, let's say, less transparency and more relaxed reporting requirements compared to their SEC-overseen brethren.
Anyway, here's a list of publicly traded EV firms:
Zenn Motors is thinly traded on the TSX-V exchange in Canada. Zenn is small despite its' bluster with revenue of $379,916 in its most recent quarter and losses of about $2.5 million for the quarter. (Amounts in Canadian dollars). Zenn generates considerable controversy and bloggage with its 10.7 percent ownership of ultracapacitor lightning rod startup EEStor (hi, Ed). Zenn builds 100 percent electric vehicles. The spec sheet on the 2009 Zenn claims a base price of about $17,000 and 280mpg. Despite mpg being a questionable spec for an EV.
ZAP, like all of these publicly traded EV companies, loses money. It lost $2.5 million on sales of $769,000 in their most recent quarter. ZAP offers a wide number of models of electric trucks, vehicles, and scooters on its website. But it's difficult to ascertain which of these products are real and deliverable. According to a recent article in Wired, ZAP's management is prone to, um, overpromising and underdelivering.
UQM Technologies builds components for EVs and lost $648,000 on sales of $2.1 million. It builds motor and controller systems for EVs and has contracts with the military and with commercial customers.
EV Innovations loses money and claims to be "a concept and brand development corporation in the field of alternative-fuel automobiles, motorcycles, scooters, and bicycles, and alternative-fuel products." Whatever a concept and brand development corporation is. The artist renditions of their many cars are presumably powered by artist renditions of lithium-ion batteries.
Leo Motors is an OTC front for Leozone, a Korean EV company that allegedly uses "12th generation lithium polymer cell" battery technology. The Korean connection might prove lucrative as the site shows Korean police and military EV designs.
EV Quotes, Drag Racing, Autotune
• “No one is going to pay a $15,000 premium for a car that competes with a Corolla. So there are not enough idiots who will buy it." said Johan de Nysschen, president of Audi of America. He called the the Chevy plug-in hybrid “a car for idiots.”
• Joe Biden (auto-tuned) on Made in USA EV batteries.
• Tesla quarter mile in 12.64 seconds, an EV record.
The GTM Research blog provides brief and frequent market analysis provided by the GTM Research team of analysts. It covers everything from analyst perspectives on greentech market events, insights into existing and future research, posts based on select analyst briefings and vendor meetings, and insights from conferences and other industry events.