Travis Bradford, is the solar industry's Delphic Oracle.  He's been covering the solar market (through the Prometheus Institute and PV news) since long before solar was a global multi-billion dollar market.

He set the stage for today's sold-out event at Intersolar show in San Francisco.

The State of the Solar Industry: Re-Defining the PV Market

Here are some of his observations:

On Foreacasting in This Turbulent Market

• "Solar really has come into its own."
• "Now that we're moving from a supply constrained world to a demand constrained world – we needed a methodology to understand the nuances of that – the tricky part is figuring out the demand side."
• "2009 was forecast to be a rough year due to price drops and due to the fact that the Spanish program fell off the cliff."
• "We fully expect a 10-gigawatts global market by 2012."
• "We also think that Germany is the biggest risk in the forecast."

United States of Solar

• "While California is considering a feed-in tariff, Germany is moving to a "California based model."
• "The U.S. is now potentially the world's largest demand market."
• "Half of the world's polysiicon is manufactured in the U.S."
• "The reason why the U.S. is such a good story is because we are rapidly approaching unsubsidized grid parity."
• "People at the state level are realizing that the jobs are at the installation level – unexportable jobs"
• "By 2015, with a 1 percent rise in grid electricity pricing,  some two-thirds of the U.S. market will be below grid-parity
• "The U.S. is going to be an extraordinary market."
• "If this industry is going to be a revolution – now is the time."

More to come from today's event...