Analysts Call Obama Election a Win for Greentech

With a new president in the White House, the country could be on the cusp on a new green economy, Wilder said.

"We’re looking to a greener economy in which we can regain the leadership we gave up in the ’80s and sell to China and to other countries," he said. "Typically all we have is services and everything is made elsewhere and we buy it, but it doesn’t have to be that way. We could sell green goods under President Obama."

But he added that the new green economy will result in some losers as well.

"I think the losers are going to be trying very hard to put forth the message that their loss is America’s loss and are going to try to show that moving from dirty fuels to cleaner fuels is a bad thing," he said. "But people are smart and know that coal is dirty.

"There are people who don’t have voices now who are going to have these new green jobs in five to 10 years and are going to be in better industries that could potentially export to the rest of the world. It just takes some leadership."

Meanwhile, John Quealy, a managing director of Canaccord Adams, said Obama’s election bodes well for smart-grid and green-building technologies, as well as for renewable energy and fuel-efficient vehicles.

Clean coal will likely continue to have a fairly high profile under Obama, he said, and ethanol supporters also expect continued support - which is in stark contrast to the platform of McCain, who proposed cutting subsidies for the biofuel (see Ethanol, Farm Industries Split on Candidates). 

Still, Quealy added, although some greentech categories will get a somewhat stronger boost from Obama, McCain also would have been a solid supporter of greentech.

"Either way, it [was] a no-lose situation for energy investors," Quealy said.

He added that the new president will need to begin considering the United States’ international environmental platform almost immediately, as government representatives will be reconvening in Copenhagen at the end of next year to negotiate the successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

"It’s kind of a sleeper [issue], if you will, but while the economy clearly has put a bit of a damper on increased costs for environmental outcomes, we can’t look away [from the fact] that Copenhagen is going to begin and that this is the chance for the U.S. to set the agenda," he said. "I think we will see some surprising things on up that haven’t been on the radar, given the Copenhagen timeline."

Zindler also noted that the tone of the campaign has been more about energy independence than about climate change, which could have "interesting reverberations" in the way that policies are made next year. 

"There are two very good arguments for supporting clean energy - one is to promote energy independence and the other is to fight global warming, and the former really took precedence over the latter in the conversations on the campaign trail," he said. "We think Democrats will put policies that are pro-renewables ahead of anti-carbon policies that reign in fossil-fuel plants."

That means a carbon cap-and-trade program could end up on the back burner.

"We still expect a cap ... but it’s not going to be at the top of the list compared to long-term extension of the [production tax credit] and other policies specifically geared toward the renewable-energy sector," he said.

The greentech industry's politicalwork isn’t over, Pernick added. Obama is going to have so many different competing interests that it’s going to be very critical for the industry to work to keep cleantech at the top of the agenda, he said.

"We’re really talking about potentially a new green deal," he said. "It’s not a fait accompli – we did not get the proof tonight just from him winning the election – but I think we’ve got a chance of using clean energy and cleantech as a foundation for economic growth."

Roland Schoettle, CEO of Optimal Technologies, said he hopes Obama sticks to his promise to overhaul energy-efficiency standards.

"He specifically stated that we need an overhaul of the grid and the implementation of a smart grid in order to reach our goals, and we also [look] forward to seeing him implement his promise to reduce energy usage in buildings by 25 [percent] to 50 percent," Schoettle said.

He added that the most heartening part of the election for him is that both candidates recognized the crucial problem of fixing the country's aging electrical grid.

"Both advocated the implementation of "smart grid" power lines to improve electrical efficiency, a strong indication that at the highest levels of government there is recognition of the primacy of this issue," he said.

While most of the U.S. environmental-policy leadership has come from states such as California so far, Pernick said he expects Obama’s election – along with the re-election of representatives including Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid, R-Nev., and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. – will change that.

"We finally have federal leadership, which we’ve lacked," he said.

Join industry leaders and influencers at Greentech Media’s new conference series Greentech Innovations: End-to-End Electricity on November 17 and 18 in New York City.