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January 18, 2012 | Brett Prior | Carolyn Campbell

Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry

The global polysilicon industry will undergo a major shakeout over the next two years, as the feedstock's epic 2011 price declines will continue through 2013. With new entrants bringing capacity online and incumbent suppliers fulfilling expansion plans fomented in the PV demand boom of yesterday, global polysilicon capacity is forecasted to double by 2013 over 2010 levels. In today's market of waning PV demand, this over-supply has already begun to open significant gaps in production scale and therefore cost structure between industry leaders and an increasingly marginalized group of new entrants.

At over 230 pages, GTM Research's report on the global polysilicon market is a comprehensive analysis of the technologies, strategies and economic roadmap for the industry. The report includes production and price/margin forecasts to 2016, along with incisive perspectives on the industry's competitive landscape and survival strategies available to polysilicon producers.

Figure: Polysilicon Supply Stack by Technology and Company

Note: Company names excluded; to see complete supply stack, purchase report above. 
Source: GTM Research

Figure: Polysilicon Production by Company (MT) in 2011

Source: GTM Research

Download the report's brochure for a complete Table of Contents and List of Figures as well as more in-depth information on the report's analysis.

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Report Author

Brett Prior is a Senior Analyst with GTM Research, the market research arm of Greentech Media, where he focuses on solar, energy storage, and project finance. Brett has published reports on Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CSP), Concentrating Photovoltaics (CPV), Project Finance, and Polysilicon.

An expert in utility-scale solar, he has been quoted in numerous publications including: The New York Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, and Forbes. Brett earned an MBA with distinction from London Business School. Before graduate school, Brett served as a Senior Equity Analyst at Bishop Street Capital Management, a mutual fund company in Hawaii. Brett holds a BA in Political Science and International Studies from Yale University, and he is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA).

Report Author

Carolyn Campbell is a Solar Analyst at GTM Research.  She covers utility and commercial project development in the U.S, tracks quarterly performance of PV manufacturers, and assists with data collection and analysis for GTMR projects, including the SEIA/GTM Research US Solar Market Insight Reports. Her internship experience includes work with energy demand management, sustainable development, and corporate environmental responsibility.  Carolyn has a BA in Environment, Economics, and Politics from Claremont McKenna College. 

 

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strategic inquiries

  • Will polysilicon prices stay at these depressed levels or are they headed back up?
  • For wafer manufacturers looking to secure their supply of polysilicon, which suppliers can be counted on to weather this storm?
  • If polysilicon contract prices are going to move below $35/kg and stay there – what impact will that have on the end price of c-Si modules?
  • Will $0.70 per watt modules become “the new normal”?
  • Which polysilicon processing technologies are providing competitive advantages in terms of costs and quality?
  • Does vertical integration offer polysilicon and/or wafer manufacturers a strategic advantage in the current market?

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