Global Nuclear Power Plant Outlook, 2013-2020
The nuclear power industry is beginning to receive serious attention once again with the promise of new reactor designs and a greater emphasis on nuclear as a long-term energy solution for governments globally. Unfortunately, the industry has a long history of over-optimism in terms of both the readiness of technology and its economics. Those parties interested in determining growth opportunities in the nuclear power business sector require a realistic appraisal of what is likely to emerge over the course of the next eight years.
This 189-page report answers several questions regarding commercial nuclear power:
- Is the perceived resurgence of this industry plausible and if so, how much of a market does it constitute?
- Are nuclear capacity addition forecasts accurate?
- Are cost estimates for plant construction and operation reasonable?
- How does the cost of electricity from these new designs compare with alternative sources of electricity?
FIGURE: Probable Range of Cumulative Nuclear Capacity Additions 2012-2020, MW
This report also provides context to the business of nuclear power, insight as to why it declined in the 1980's and then remained dormant over much of the 1990’s; what issues have been resolved since then and what barriers remain.
The objectives of the report are to equip the reader with realistic and objective insight into:
- The nature of the nuclear power “renaissance” and whether or not it is a short-term or sustainable change in the industry
- The Fukushima incident and its impact on several countries’ nuclear power programs
- Cost assessments and comparisons of nuclear technologies among themselves and other electricity generation sources
- A forecast of new nuclear plant capacity plans and capital investment
- Scenario-based forecasts of nuclear capacity and investment
- Probabilistic forecasts of capacity and capital
FIGURE: Probable Range of Overnight Capital Expenditures 2012-2020, MW
Companies Analyzed Include: AREVA • ATMEA • Atomenergoprom • Atomic Energy of Canada • Babcock & Wilcox • British Nuclear Fuels • Cameco Corporation • CB&I (The Shaw Group) • China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group • China National Nuclear Corporation • EDF • Framatome • Gen4 Energy (Hyperion Power) • GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy • General Atomics • Generation mPower • Holtec International • IHI Corporation • KEPCO • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries • NuScale Power • Pebble Bed Modular Reactor • Rosatom • RWE AG • Siemens • Toshiba • URENCO • Westinghouse