According to GTM Research’s latest edition of the PV Pulse, the global blended average price for a tier-1 Chinese-produced multicrystalline PV module fell 10 percent year-over-year and reached 57 cents per watt in the fourth quarter of 2015.

“While underwhelming demand in 2014 left its trace on pricing in early 2015, supply-demand tightness and tariffs drove price trends in the second half of the year,” said Jade Jones, a senior solar analyst at GTM Research.

Here are GTM Research’s estimates for component prices as of the fourth quarter of 2014.

FIGURE: Selling Prices, Q4 2015

Source: GTM Research PV Pulse, March 2016

Assuming a stable supply-demand landscape, GTM Research anticipates that global blended prices will steadily fall at an annualized rate of 5 percent and reach 44 cents per watt by 2020.

Source: GTM Research PV Pulse, March 2016

In the near term, GTM Research’s initial outlook sees polysilicon and wafer prices up year-over-year. Jones notes that the polysilicon pricing forecast is driven by inventory and margin recovery, while wafer prices are driven by a tight supply-demand balance. Cell and module prices are both expected to be down this year.

GTM Research’s PV Pulse tracks monthly technology, supply and pricing trends in the global PV supply chain. Contact [email protected] for information on pricing.