I know the time for all of the "best of" lists and "predictions" is past but as an observer of the EV and alt-fuel industry, I think that it is going to be a very interesting year with some surprises. In many ways, I think 2009 will be the shakeout year. One obvious reason will be that the recession and difficult capital environment will continue to put pressure on established companies and startup companies. Another reason is all of the projects and plans that were previously in the development phase are due to start maturing, and it will be clear who the serious players are. So here are some of my predictions for the EV industry in 2009: 1) The first Tranche of ATVM loans will be heavily weighted toward legacy manufacturers and building domestic battery capacity: Perhaps the most important decisions that will impact the EV industry are being made now in the halls of the DOE. 70 applicants await decisions on whether their projects will receive direct, low interest loans from the government. While there is a bit of a "pigs at the trough" mentality going on, at the end of the day I think that the incoming administration will be looking at this program in the larger context of the economic stimulus and will therefore show a bias toward preserving established jobs and manufacturing capacity when it comes to vehicle programs. As for batteries, the lack of any domestic capacity is both a concern and a great opportunity to build a new industry. The big winners (but certainly not the only ones) will be GM, Ford and A123 in the first round of loans. 2) Recession and government involvement in funding advanced vehicle technology will accelerate the convergence of Silicon Valley and Detroit: For similar reasons outlined above, the DOE will attach conditions to loans that will either explicitly or implicitly encourage new companies to leverage old manufacturing capacity and job bases. Imagine, for example, that the DOE approves the application that Tesla has submitted for battery Model S assembly, but conditioned on them using an existing plant with excess capacity or a plant that is planned to be closed by one of the Big 3. The example is hypothetical, but you can bet the government is going to be very hands on in not just the "who" but the "how" these loans are implemented, and it will be done with an emphasis on protecting existing jobs and stopping the bleeding. The other force driving convergence will be the economy. Lack of capital will drive startups to get out of the manufacturing business and into the patents/components business, turning to the incumbents as their customers. 3) GM will announce a "pure EV" version of the Chevy Volt with 100+ miles range: This would be very easy for the company to do, since it basically would only require the use of a different battery chemistry and the depopulation of the ICE and genset. And it would be a popular move from the perspective of the EV community, but the hard business reason why GM will do this is because it will enable the company to more easily meet its commitments to the CARB ZEV mandate in 2011 and beyond. Add to this the announcement by Ford that its intends to produce a pure EV Ford Focus and you've got the cross town rivalry thing going as well. 4) Lotus will announce both a pure EV and range extended EV version of the Evora at the Geneva show, and will release at least one of the two: this is another no-brainer (and the rumor was reported by the FT). Lotus has enough experience with Tesla, Chrysler and who knows who else to have the confidence and desire to go it alone in what is one of the only growth segments for the automobile industry. The longer, more luxurious Evora will be a very compelling offering, although it will likely sacrifice the "+2" seating to accommodate the drivetrain. 5) All major players will seek equity tie-ups in battery makers to ensure supply: in the future world of EV production, guaranteed access to cell supply is absolutely vital. The current projections for demand for automotive lithium-ion batteries vastly outstrips current capacity. What is shaping up is the possibility of a battery squeeze play, with some being left wanting for supply. The situation was made worse by Panasonic's acquisition of Sanyo. Toyota has already made it clear they will develop batteries in-house (in addition to their JV with Panasonic). Daimler has already announced their tie up with Evonik. Nissan has a JV with NEC. GM will be looking to strengthen their ties to LG Chem (possibly through a US based JV) and Ford will be looking for a partner. With so few players in the cell manufacturing business, smaller players or those late to the game risk being squeezed out. Daryl Siry is the former chief marketing officer for Tesla Motors. He now consults on marketing and the automotive industry. You can read more here: http://darrylsiry.blogspot.com.