Changing World Technologies thinks the public is ready to invest in its waste-to-biofuel business. It will be bucking a trend. The West Hempstead, N.Y.-based maker of biodiesel and organic fertilizer from animal and food processing waste is seeking to raise about $33 million by selling 2.8 million shares through an "OpenIPO" auction process being managed by W.R. Hambrecht & Co. That's the same method that Google used to go public in 2004, but it's still a "very unconventional" way to do it, said John Quealy, an equity analyst for Canaccord Adams. But "given the turmoil that the capital markets are in, I think companies need to be a bit more inventive in going-to-market strategies," Quealy noted. That may be an understatement. The United States saw only 43 IPOs in 2008, a huge drop from 272 in 2007, making last year the worst year for public offerings since 1978, according to Renaissance Capital. "IPOs as you know have been pretty much shut down since September, with rare exception," Quealy said. "In the clean energy space, it’s been entirely shut down." The list of canceled IPOs includes a host of biofuel companies. In September, Redwood City, Calif.-based biofuel catalyst developer Codexis canceled its plan to raise $100 million through the public markets, citing poor market conditions. Other biofuel makers had canceled their IPOs before the current financial crisis got underway. In March, Ralston, Iowa-based biodiesel producer Renewable Energy Group called off its plans to raise up to $150 million, and in January, Seattle-based biodiesel maker Imperium Renewables nixed its ambitions $345 million IPO (see Imperium IPO Delay Underlines Feedstock Shortage, Analyst Says). Beyond the state of the markets, biofuel makers have to contend with a basic set of economic equations, Quealy said — the price of the feedstock they use, and the selling price of the fuel they produce. That's the equation that has put makers of corn-based ethanol in such dire financial straits in the past year, and it could apply equally to "next-generation" biofuel makers, he said. "Regardless of the technology," he said, "it really just comes down to the front end and the back end." And Changing World's front-and-back equations might present the company with a tough sell. According to the company's prospectus, it estimates its commercial production costs will be from 85 cents to $1.60 per gallon — about half of that feedstock costs and the rest the cost of its conversion process. But over the past four years Changing World has been selling its renewable diesel at prices ranging from a low of 14 cents a gallon in Sept. 2006 to $1.19 a gallon in Sept. 2008 — and that 2008 high price was when oil was trading for around $100 a barrel. On Tuesday, oil was trading at around $47 a barrel. Of course, Changing World will be able to claim the $1-per-gallon tax credit available from the federal government to bolster that selling price. It also tells prospective investors that it hopes its commercially produced biofuel will command prices close to those for No. 2 Heating Oil, which has averaged $2.25 per gallon over the past three years. But given the wild swings in prices of commodities from oil to corn to recycled materials over the past six months — and the continued uncertainty over the economy — it's hard to say how confident investors will be in Changing World's math.