• Friday, November 20, 2009 Latest Update: 4:41PM
Michael Kanellos | November 21, 2008 at 6:00 AM 12 Comments

Some Ugly Numbers for the Electric Car Industry

All-electric cars are a great idea, in theory. And they are much more technically feasible than jet packs or monorails, two of the other big transportation ideas from the mid-1960s. (Everything I know about technology I learned on the Johnny Quest show.)

Unfortunately, the economics still don’t add up very well. Batteries cost a lot and the cars themselves can only go between 150 and 250 miles before needing an recharge (which takes hours) or battery swap (which will be a sketchy concept for consumers to swallow). Here’s some of the signs from this week:

Tesla Motors is seeking $400 million in loans from the federal government, according to peHub. The company has already burned through massive amounts of capital and delayed its sedan.

Better Place says it will set up charging stations in the Bay Area. The project will cost about $1 billion dollars.

BMW is going to start leasing prototypes of an Electric Mini. The cost? $850 a month. That means the car, which only goes about 150 miles before conking out and has a reduced backseat, costs about as much as some of the company’s more expensive cars.

But the bright side? Toyota and GM are forging ahead with plans for plug-in hybrids for 2010.

Comments [12]

  • Vasu Murti 11/21/08 6:22 AM

    This is precisely why Telsa started with the Roadster, a sportscar, and did not choose compete with the Ford Escorts of the world.

    When pushing new, expensive technologies the best business model is high cost low volume.  That’s where you begin, that’s what BMW may be starting at $850/month.  If they can prove to the world that a dependable plug in exists, then the mass market takes notice and wants in.

    Big Oil and Gas have subsidies.  Ford and GM had plenty of help over the years and they drove themselves into a ditch.  Let’s place some bets on the Telsa and Fiskers of the world.  Maybe Johnny Quest was on to something.

    I still want my jet pack!!!

    Reply
  • Daniel Neumansky 11/21/08 10:38 AM

    Well the Th!nk City EV has a ~110 mile range with the EnerDel batteries and they are planning to sell them for less than a Prius in the states with a ~$150/month battery lease fee.  That seems way more reasonable than the mini-E plan.

    Also the mini-E is not really a production vehicle. mini contracted with AC propulsion to one-off the intial run of testing vehicles.  Is anyone going to think that the best way to create an EV is to take a car built for an ICE and then retro-fit?  Does not seem like the best way to go to me.

    Reply
  • Michael Kanellos 11/21/08 10:57 AM

    Is it an AC propulsion job. That makes sense. the ebox sells for $55k without the car (with its $72K)

    Reply
  • Domenick 11/22/08 4:04 AM

    What’s the alternative? Keep burning oil? No thanks. I don’t care if they’re giving the stuff away, my next new car is electric.

    Some other numbers worth calculation consideration. CO2 ppm (already too high), cost to healthcare from damage inflicted by burning gas (10s of billions yearly),  environmental costs from oil sands and such (billions) ,cost of last war,  thought by many to be for the sake of oil (over a trillion). I could go on but you get my point.

    While your article does make a couple valid points (I’m skeptical of the practicability of battery swapping and exorbitant lease costs), as other commenters have pointed out, your criticism of Tesla seems beside the point and the current ranges stated are a vast improvement from just 10 years ago and suitable for most people. Electrics don’t have to be all things to all people. Not yet.

    I do like your writing and look forward to more.

    Reply
  • jake 11/23/08 8:22 PM

    People like to think of the Roadster as a toy, but isn’t it precisely because it’s a high performance sports car that Tesla Motors can even get into the market and make a name for themselves? As you guys brought up, AC propulsion also made EVs, but they are far from well known and it doesn’t look like their business can expand to mass production of their own cars. In fact the whole EV scene was pretty much dead until the Tesla Roadster came out and became their poster child and now even the general public at least have a slightly positive stance toward EVs and automakers are inspired to try getting into EVs (voluntarily I might add).

    Tesla is aiming to use the $400 million to go to developing cars which more people can afford, 2nd car is $60k sedan and 3rd will be a $30k car. So no, I don’t think we should dismiss them just yet. They aren’t planning on staying in the niche of sports cars.

    Quite frankly $400 million & $1 billion aren’t really shocking numbers in the auto industry, the detroit 3 are asking for $25 billion and not doubt they can quickly burn through $400 million or $1 billion just trying to stay afloat and not developing and making new products (not even talking about new technology like EVs, even just new models of ICE cars).

    Reply
  • Michael Kanellos 11/26/08 8:55 AM

    There’s three points there, BBHY, that’d I’d like to make:

    1. Oil isn’t the long term future, but coming up with alternatives isn’t easy. No one wants to give up cars and planes.

    2. Electric cars are a great idea, but they aren’t there yet. Plug-ins make a lot more sense.

    3. You’re comment “articles like this aren’t helping anyone” seems to be a call for propaganda. Think of it. The idea is that electric cars will come if we ignore facts. That’s just not going to help. Otherwise, everyone falls into the trap of blaming those evil oil companies for daring to sell us that stuff we can’t seem to live without.

    Reply
  • Nerd Fest 11/22/08 6:41 PM

    400 million? Hm. It is interesting to note, to those who may not know, that Rachel Konrad lists her current job title as Senior Manager of Communications at Tesla Motors on LinkedIn. Johnny Quest may have been onto something with the jet pack, but the Simpsons (and Kanellos) were definitely onto something with the monorail.

    Reply
  • BBHY 11/25/08 10:35 PM

    The economics of dino-juice powered vehicles is certainly not a sustainable model, so we better find a way to make electric cars work. You honestly think that giving $25 billion to GM so they can keep selling Hummers is a better idea than electric cars?

    Articles like this one aren’t helping anyone.

    Adding Greentechmedia.com to my list of sites to avoid.

    Reply
  • Rachel Konrad 11/21/08 7:09 AM

    The DOE project seeks to fund next-generation powertrain technologies to wean Americans and American industry from their oil addiction. Unlike other companies, Tesla is not asking for a bailout or a lifeline but rather is applying for the funds according to the original intent and spirit of the DOE program, which aims to enable innovative automakers to get more vehicles to the market faster.

    Further, only someone who doesn’t know much about the auto industry would say that Tesla has “burned through massive amounts of capital.” So far Tesla has amassed a total financing of less than $200 million—yet it has brought a phenomenal vehicle to market with a clean and leading-edge powertrain that requires siginficant R&D funding and material cost.

    By contrast, any automotive analyst or executive at any major global automaker will tell you that it generally costs $1 billion to fund a vehicle project from concept to production reality—and that’s for yet another internal combustion engine that robs from the parts bins of other models in the company’s lineup. By any standard, Tesla ranks among the leanest, most efficient and most productive and innovative companies in the sector.

    Reply
  • Michael Kanellos 11/21/08 7:45 AM

    Our debate over massive I think underscores why there have been virtually no car start ups that have survived for very long. For a car company, $200 million is not massive. For the people forking over the cash, it’s in the massive category. No doubt about it.

    Do I like electric cars? yes. Best things I’ve ever ridden in. Tesla Roadster easily the coolest car I’ve sat in. Love the low noise. Are batteries a real big problem? yes. They cost too much, and they don’t store a ton of energy. If consumers can learn to accept commuter cars and car makers can bring the price down, all electrics win.

    otherwise, it’s plug in hybrids.

    Reply
  • Paul 11/21/08 1:22 PM

    Wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning Michael ? Why bother to publish such a weak and negative peace of editorial? Seriously are you deliberately trying to loose your readership?

    Want some ugly numbers? How about counting up the 100s of Millions being invested in EV battery joint ventures worldwide. There’s not even a mass market for EV batteries yet and won’t be for another 2 years so there is hardly likely to be huge manufacturing capacity and price competition. How about noting that while sales volume of most ICE powered car are off by up to 50% with inventory clogging up ports,  dealer lots and storage facilities nationwide, the few genuine hybrids on sale still have 6 month waiting lists.  (All these facts are in the public domain)

    Get serious for a second, how often do you drive over 150-250 miles in a single trip in an average year? It’s yet another well known fact that 78% of US drivers travel less than 40 miles daily. Putting a 300kg $20,000 battery pack in every single EV sold when less than 10% will do over 150 miles a day regularly is obviously over capacity. Makes about as much sense as having every road car capable of doing over 200mph. Why not focus on the fact it costs $1.00 per 100km to drive the BMW Mini compared to $20 for a car with similar performance. The fundamental advantages of EVs never change.

    And let’s not use Musk and motor manufacturer in the same sentence. Tesla is a glorified EV converter and they’ve barely delivered 7% of their (tiny by automaker standard) back order of 1200 cars. Musk is quite literally a space cadet. Tesla more realistically should partner with a sedan manufacture that has already built up the plant and supplier network as the only IP Tesla has (mostly licensed from ACP) is the drivetrain that is pretty ease to work around.

    Reply
  • S. 11/23/08 2:23 AM

    I think that you miss one very important point, Michael: the Electric Car is going to be a small urban car, at least in first phase. And it may be a long phase, anyway.
    Forget Tesla: it’s a cool merchandising toy for the EV industry, but it’s not the (near) future of the Electric Car.

    Small, urban cars (I think about Europe, where I write from) may be the perfect fit for our small busy and over polluted cities.
    A small car means a smaller battery and a smaller cost: believe it or not, but even at todays battery cost (and at today gasoline european prices!) electric car can compete with conventional urban cars if you take into account all the costs over the lifetime of the vehichle.
    The financial meltdown may slow down the process for the next 1-2 years, but the electric urban car will soon prove how good it is.

    Reply

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