Is China Going Green or Not?

China. The world can cut down carbon emissions in a big way with its cooperation. Will it happen?

Yes, says Steve Chadima, vice president of external affairs with Suntech Power Holdings, the large Chinese solar module maker. Suntech right now is bidding on a 10 megawatt solar field being supported by the Chinese government, he said during a presentation at the ThinkGreen conference sponsored by ThinkEquity in San Francisco this week.

“We expect hundreds if not thousands of megawatts to follow,” he said. The U.S. market will likely explode next year and China will follow after that, he predicted.

Phil Adams, president of WorldEnergy, which has created a carbon and electricity auction system, agrees. The government stays in power when it has the cooperation of the people. If things go bad—really bad—the legitimacy to rule is questioned. (Dynasties fell for the same reasons.) And China has suffered a large increase in protests over environmental issues. The government will need to clean up to maintain power, he argues.

But the signs of actual, constructive action are limited, says Venrock’s Matthew Trevithick. Ten megawatts? Not going to set the world on fire. A few years ago, He was in China to check out some green technologies being prepped for the Olympics. The trip was canceled.

Giving up the economic juggernaut for a better, cleaner environment could be a tough sell, he added.

From my own experiences and interviews in China, I am in the middle. Environmental issues have cropped up. China sees a way to make huge amounts of money from green technologies. The country also doesn’t want to be beholden to imports of oil.

But if going green would hamper growth, even average Chinese citizens will probably balk. The changes in lifestyle that have occurred due to the rising economy will be too big to swallow. One person I interviewed, Liu Bo, who ran a Linux company, spent the first 30 minutes of our talk telling me about his experiences working 15 to 20 hours a day on a collective farm.

“The two years of hardship taught me to face difficulties,” he said. “What could be worse?”

Another person, who runs PR for a large U.S. company, told me how his family was the first he knew to ever get a TV. It was 1979, and they bought a six-inch black-and-white TV. His mom was worried the police would arrest them. Now he lives in luxury.