Carbon and Power Price Boom by 2020?
ghayes: April 2, 2009, 11:00 AM
It's expensive to make the transition to renewable energy. The shift will have a big impact on carbon and power prices if the European goal of procuring 20 percent of the E.U.'s energy from renewable sources by 2020 are met. This according to the ICF International study European Power and Carbon Outlook.
The price on carbon allowances could increase by seven times today's rates to about 25 dollars per allowance (estimated from latest auction results). And to reach the goal of 20 percent renewable energy it takes great investments, both in technology and supporting infrastructure. This will also affect electricity prices and cause them to double between 2010 and 2020, according to the ICF International study. The investments will also need to be done in gas-fired capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
“EU ETS participants should look beyond the current economic and credit crisis and adopt a long-term carbon market strategy that anticipates a sharp rise in demand for emission reductions over the next five years,� said Diane Simiu, carbon analyst, in a statement. “Anyone going for the ‘dash-for-cash’ approach is in for a rude awakening when the carbon market picks up.�
IFC International is responsible for a number of studies on climate change and emissions economics, and they tend to be more gung-ho on fossil fuels than others. Among others their research backed American Petroleum Institute President and CEO Jack N. Gerard in saying that "more drilling for oil and natural gas will mean more energy for America, more well-paying jobs, and trillions of dollars of much-needed revenues that will help federal, state and local governments pay for critical services" according to Energy Tomorrow.




