• Friday, November 20, 2009 Latest Update: 4:41PM
Eric Wesoff | November 20, 2008 at 7:48 PM 14 Comments

Black Swans and Greenwashing

We at Greentech Media spend quite a bit of our time reporting on renewable energy technologies. We live, breathe, and eat renewable energy. But today I received some bad news from Vinod Khosla, an investor sort, who spoke at the Palo Alto Research Center on Thursday.

According to this Khosla guy (if you have any background on him, let me know) many of the market sectors that Greentech Media covers are essentially greenwashing and certainly not a solution to our climate issues.

  • Photovoltaic panels in the booming $20 billion PV market? Not scalable and not sustainable without subsidies. PV panels on roofs in Germany or San Francisco? No way. Not when Germany has the same solar resources as Alaska. “Rich San Franciscans and Germans putting PV on their roofs only delays the problem and diverts money from where it’s needed," he says.
  • Those wind turbines from GE and Vestas? They’re good but there’s little upside for innovation, the Betz limit is being approached, and the available good sites are declining. And without storage, they don’t provide spinning reserve.
  • Those Prius hybrids driven by Bay Area liberal socialists? Not a solution to the climate or energy problem. Better to take that money and paint your roof white to improve the earth’s albedo. And they certainly don’t meet the Chindia test. To meet the Chindia test they have to compete with the $2,500 Tata Nano. “Hybrids are an inefficient carbon solution."
  • Biodiesel? Nope, not a great idea.
  • Zero emission buildings? Fashion and fad.
  • Clean Coal? “FutureGen" is more like “NeverGen"
  • Carbon Capture and Sequestration? VK says, “I do not believe carbon sequestration can work economically."
  • T. Boone Pickens’ plan for LNG and wind? “A dead-end street.|"
  • New battery technology for EVs? It’s unlikely that Li-ion or Ni mH chemistries will yield significant breakthroughs according to The Vinod.
  • Certainly, Energy Efficiency is a good thing? Sorry. According to Vinod “The Buzzkill" Khosla, “Too many people in the environmental movement think that efficiency is the answer. Efficiency is valuable but not sufficient."

According to Mr. Sunshine, we need “relevant scale" solutions attacking oil, coal, cement and steel. “500 million people on earth enjoy a lifestyle that 9 billion people will want in 2050."

Second only to the greenwashed concepts mentioned above, Mr. Khosla’s pet peeve is bad forecasting based of extrapolating the past when we should be “inventing the future."

Khosla is looking for “black swan solutions" that cause “technology shock" and cites a few startups both in and out of his large cleantech portfolio that might provide the technology shock we need.

Kior’s biocrude replaces crude by utilizing thermal cracking – simulating the millions of years that turns trees and dinosaurs into oil. According to Khosla, “They are making amazing progress [and are] producing a barrel of oil a day."

Transonic makes a “third type of engine" with an injector ignition technology that can create 100 mpg diesel Priuses.

Calera is another potential black swan that can create cement that, “sequesters carbon dioxide rather than emitting it." Khosla said that, "We’ll know in the next six months [if it’s for real]."

EEStor is not a Khosla portfolio company (it's funded by KPCB, et al.) but not by choice. “We didn’t get a chance to invest... I can’t tell you if it will work, but if it does it completely changes the economics of hybrids."

Other black swans to look for are in algenol and in energy storage.

Solar PV, Wind and biofuels are “little markets," according to Mr. Khosla’s audacious presentation and worldview.

According to him, the new green is “Maintech" not “Cleantech" and we need to go after huge markets like engines, lighting, appliances, cement, water, glass and buildings and not fritter away our time and effort on PV and wind.

Comments [14]

  • Nerd Fest 11/25/08 5:50 PM

    Seriously people. These are all good points. There is entirely too much glad handing and subsidized monies floating around in the name of “green” without a whole lot actually being steered towards a viable soultion. Considering the recent trouble we’re in by way of those willing to ignore common sense reality in favor of greed and ideology, it would seem that listening to Khosla would be more prudent than tossing about the same tired claims about nano-batteries and thin-filmed promises.

    Public relations and marketing machines can be dangerously persuasive with a public that ignores hard numbers in favor of bleary eyed pseudo-technical pantheism. There is no easy or singular solution to our energy and transportation problem. There’s a difference between simply wanting to believe, and the realities of scale. While I agree that investing in new technologies is key, let’s be wary of the difference between fact, fiction - and invest wisely. Take off the blinders for a second and think for a second before re-bleating the latest claims of start ups. In the meantime, I’ll keep waiting for my atomic flying car.

    Reply
  • Charles Morand 11/25/08 12:55 AM

    Interesting how none of the firm you list there have any involvement in power generation, load abatement through distributed generation or plain energy efficiency.

    A truly “blackswan” strategy for road transport would be to get people off the road and into public transportation, and the high price of gasoline is looking like it’s taking care of that anyways. Based on the types of companies here, his strategy for cutting down on road transport emissions - relying on expensive, unscaled and complex technologies - seems to me like it holds very little prospect without gigantic subsidies. 

    I find it difficult to find any intellectual merit to his argument if he offers no solutions for the power generation sector other than carbon capture, which is more of a black hole than a black swan at the moment. And the fact that wind is running into the limits of technological improvement is a positive thing: now wind operators can focus on scaling up and seeking economies across the system to lower costs.

    Reply
  • peter 11/24/08 1:31 AM

    He’s obviously never heard of 3rd Generation thin film PV’s and the companies developing them. Companies like http://www.konarka.com/. One of the co-founders is Dr Alan J Heeger, one of the 2000 Nobel Laureates in Chemistry for the discovery of conductive polymers. They are only getting around 11% efficiency at the moment but are making rapid progress and promise to be far cheaper than silicon wafer based PV’s. As an interesting comparison, PV efficiency is often scoffed at, however the best coal fired power stations can get no more than 43% efficiency compounded by a 35% loss in transmission. That’s a net 28% efficiency. Motor vehicles with Otto cycle engines only get 15% efficiency out of their fuel. Electric motors are 80-95% efficient.
    He’s on the mark with EEStor (if it works as described), but he seems to fail to understand that if EEStor’s device (called an EESU) works it could replace battery storage in home PV and wind systems as well as providing grid storage in commercial size installations. The applications are greater than just Hybrids. In fact, if this technology works, Hybrids are dead. Cars will go straight to electric plugins. An EESU at home will charge on off peak grid/solar/wind and fill up an in vehicle EESU with a quick charge (5-10 minutes). It could also provide very rapid and efficient water heating due to the high power density of capacitors.

    Reply
      • Eric Wesoff 08/10/09 11:35 AM

        Konarka? Low efficiency, low reliability, high cost.

  • Ron Swenson 12/20/08 4:51 PM

    More about Khosla? He is a software guy. His meager understanding of mechanical engineering principles is manifest in his misguided investments in biofuels, based on greed (subsidies), not science. Beware of programmers carrying screwdrivers.

    Taking his comments as summarized, one at a time:
      * “Photovoltaics”—Khosla doesn’t know what he’s talking about. PV at scale will be economical and, more importantly, has excellent EROEI, especially thin film which is finally ramping up.
      * “Wind turbines .. without storage, they don’t provide spinning reserve”—Klueless Khosla. Spinning reserves can be handled in other ways. The dinosaur utilities bring up storage as an issue; cheap shot. Wind works fine when balanced with other renewables in a smart grid environment.
      * “Prius hybrids”—Khosla is korrect, but for different reasons. The Black Swan in this case is PRT / podcars, 100% solar powered, as Bill James commented. http://www.solarevolution.com.
      * “Biodiesel? Nope, not a great idea.”—Khosla is korrect. Just a way to destroy tropical rainforests.
      * “Zero emission buildings”—Wrong again, software guy. Buildings consume ~ 50% of US energy. Huge upside potential.
      * “Clean Coal?”—No such thing. This is not news. If he is so smart, Khosla can stop making ethanol, which uses mostly coal-generated electricity to process.
      * “Carbon Capture”—True. Again, he’s not telling us anything new here.
      * “T. Boone Pickens’ plan for LNG and wind?”—Yes and no. NG is in short supply. For transport, it’s preposterous to use it. OTOH, wind is economical and has great resources in the Great Plains. Off the mark, dude.
      * “New battery technology for EVs?”—A better battery is not the issue. The EV is still a ton to move a person, still ugly: 40k fatalities a year won’t change with the EV. See Bill James’ website.
      * “Efficiency is valuable but not sufficient.”—Duh. What Khosla overlooks is the disruptive technology that will be so much more efficient that we will be able to power our society with much less energy, and with cleaner sources.

    Khosla has made some smart moves. He is an inspirational speaker. Just don’t forget that he’s a Republican and a software guy.

    Reply
  • Sarah Sirigina 12/3/08 9:45 PM

    Unfortunately, even Lehman Bros was into this clean deal before it collapsed! So that really shows us where these investment fund managers mindset is going!

    Reply
  • Bill James 12/19/08 5:13 AM

    We can approach the efficiency of long-haul freight by building Personal Rapid Transit networks.  They cut energy requirements by 50-90%. 

    The City of San Jose, CA and Masdar, Abu Dhabi are moving forward to implement such networks.

    Reply
  • Eric Wesoff 12/19/08 5:47 AM

    Bill,
    Tell me more about the San Jose Personal Rapid Transit networks.
    Eric

    Reply
  • Tom Stacy 11/25/08 2:37 PM

    Isn’t it funny that the posts here are attacking the man, Khosla, and not disproving his points?  You can call him Mr. Sunshine, but I think it is pretty dark in the haze of green where many Americans live today.  Listen, folks, no one wants to pollute, but who really wants to waste money pretending not to pollute?  So when capitalists step up to accept misguided government handouts, who is to blame?  The answer to that one is chilling.  It started with ENRON and the survivors now own NBC!

    “GOT STORAGE?”

    Reply
  • DD 11/24/08 7:02 AM

    If you “live, breathe, and eat renewable energy” then you need to do some backgrounding on Vinod Khosla. He’s a relative newcomer to cleantech, but gets more than his share of media attention. I’m glad software and dot-com VCs are discovering cleantech. However, the people to listen to are those who have been in it for 10 years or more. Khosla, Metcalf and the like are able to get air time for their agendas. Others, like Nth Power founder Nancy Floyd, add real value to the discourse.
    http://energypriorities.com/entries/2008/11/nancy_floyd_greenbuild.php

    Reply
  • Eric Wesoff 11/24/08 8:21 AM

    DD.
    We know who Vinod Khosla is.  I’ll use emoticons next time for the humor-impaired.
    Eric

    Reply
  • Eric Wesoff 11/22/08 1:31 PM

    EEstor alert: note that the commenter “b” above is the author of the website http://theEEstory.com/ which appears to be undergoing a revolt at the moment.

    Reply
  • Eric Wesoff 12/18/08 8:51 AM

    Dearest goparc,
    Vinod Khosla is a compelling speaker and obviously a successful and brilliant investor.
    Of course I know who he is. In the future I will use emoticons for the irony-impaired.
    He does have a tendency to contradict himself - he slights PV although he is an investor in a PV start-up. He slights food-based ethanol although he is an investor in food-based ethanol. He is a thought leader and I very much respect and admire him but not everything he says is gospel.
    Sincerely, Eric Wesoff

    Reply
  • goparc 12/18/08 7:33 AM

    Vinod Khosla’s speech has to be taken in the right spirit (which many of those who attended his talk on “GreenWashing” understand). He backed up all his “claims” with statistics and profound logic.

    It looks like he (or rather his investment company) is for “green technologies” only If it solves REAL problem not some phony problems in the real world.

    He is not such as an unknown person that Eri Wessof needs someone to tell who Vinod is.

    Reply

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