Think of them as the "Sanford and Son" of the wind industry. A small, but growing, number of companies like Halus Power Systems are specializing in refurbished wind turbines says Green Inc. Unlike solar panels, which live fairly passive lives, wind turbines are regularly abused by the elements. Plus, they are mechanical by nature so wind turbines are prone to break down. (Only a portion of solar installations come with pivoting frames and even then it's a fairly controlled motion. Because the sun doesn't change its pace, the speed of the pivoting panels remains fairly constant.) The refurbished turbines go for around $700 to $800 per kilowatt versus $1,400 to $1,600 for new ones. It might work. Recycling certainly plays in other markets. Several companies, such as Multis Group and Electronic Recyclers have created growing businesses out of refurbishing old computers. Solar panels can also be repaired in the event of breakage. (Bob Cart, CEO of GreenVolts, actually got started in solar after repairing damaged solar panels he found on South Pacific islands during an extended break from work. Yachts were leaving them.) Again, computers and solar panels have easier lives, but it doesn't mean it can't work elsewhere. The challenge will be in how well the refurbed turbines function. Regulators are going to scrutinize the handiwork. One thing the refurbishers will have going for them is the complexity involved in building turbines. Until the economic crash, there was a large backlog of turbines, caused by both high demand and the long manufacturing time. If you ordered a turbine in early 2008, the expected delivery time was late 2009 or early 2010. It rapidly eased in October, but it could easily return.

It was bound to happen. Lockheed Martin has signed a letter of intent with Ocean Power Technologies to build a utility-scale wave farm in North America. OPT will provide site development expertise while Lockheed will bring in the construction, logistics and operation expertise. Lockheed is also working on utility-sized solar projects with Starwood Energy Group. Some out there will see the name Lockheed and go "ewwwww." The company has been a major military contractor for decades. But frankly, this is a real sign of hope that green will thrive. The greentech industry is trying to move beyond the concept stage to actual, practical, massive deployment, and that's going to require the help of large, well-funded, and well-connected companies. Moving from fossil fuels will likely turn into one of the biggest construction and manufacturing projects since World War II. Lockheed has employees who've spent several years of their lives locked up in zoning hearings. Haliburton? You'll likely see that name percolate in greentech over the next few years. If geothermal takes off, all the oil drillers will get into it. Granted, this means that you'll also see an influx of bureaucractic inefficiency and some of the other charms of conglomerate style corporate management. But it's better that than stay stuck on the fringes.

What was inauguration weekend like?  Kind of like Mardi Gras, but with more clothes. There were millions of people in town, and every one of them in a great mood. The commonality of purpose brought out the kind of camaraderie usually only seen during national calamities -- strangers talked to strangers on the Metro, in restaurants, on the streets. For the enviro and cleantech community, a celebratory highlight came the night before the inauguration, at the Green Ball.  Vote Solar was on the host committee. To walk the walk, I tried to dress appropriately.  My tuxedo, for example, was definitely recycled.  It clearly had been to several proms before. [Pictured at right: The Vote Solar team (and friends) -- from left: Shaun Chapman, Annie Carmichael, Alexander Rose (Long Now Foundation), Rosalind Jackson, Gwen Rose, Adam Browning, Polly Shaw (Suntech).] The party was a lot like one of Vote Solar's parties, except it was held in the National Portrait Gallery at the Smithsonian instead of a nightclub, and there were a lot more famous people.  Al Gore, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Van Jones preached to the largely converted.  If you are unfamiliar with Van Jones, you should crawl out from under that rock you call home, and read this profile in the recent New Yorker.  I was actually at the meeting Elizabeth Kolbert recounts -- while I was reduced to squinting stinkeyes at the fatuous few who hijacked the agenda, Van was somehow able to turn the tables and walk out of there with Speaker Pelosi, fist in the air, chanting "Clean Energy Jobs Now" in front of TV cameras. It was really rather amazing. I digress.  The lineup of musicians was fantastic.  Artists included John Legend, Maroon 5, Michael Franti and Will.i.am of Black Eyed Peas fame. As part of her set, Melissa Etheridge drew rousing cheers, declaring: "You can always tell when a Democrat's about to take the White House; the parties are better."  While cleantech is of course a bi-partisan issue, I wonder how she knows?  Somehow I don't think she was playing four years ago. I almost tripped over General Wesley Clark, and I saw John Cusack.  I asked him for my two dollars, but in true Browning joke tradition, I found myself funnier than he. Next post: a summing of the federal solar agenda, and an assessment of its prospects. Adam Browning is Executive Director of the Vote Solar Initiative.

OK, so how do we get several hundred million carbon-spewing vehicles off the road in time to significantly slow global warming? I don’t think there’s a single answer, but chances are the solution is going to require massive government intervention. Tax incentives don’t count as massive. Neither does the “Cash for Clunkers� bill introduced in the Senate last week. The Cash for Clunkers program, officially dubbed the Vehicle Scrappage Bill, would give a $2,500 to $4,500 credit to drivers who scrap a fuel-inefficient vehicle and replace it with a more fuel-efficient vehicle. The bill’s sponsors estimate it’ll help upgrade half a million to a million vehicles a year. Americans sold 42.5 million used cars in 2004, so we’re not talking about much of a dent in the used car population, though presumably it would cull many of the dirtier cars. The bill is a step in the right direction, but it’s helpful in the same way getting a smoker to cut out that last cigarette of the day is good for his health. In the end it only matters if it starts a process that gets us to kick the habit entirely. The ideal would be for the government to wave a magic wand and turn everyone’s car into an electric vehicle (and wave it again to produce all our electricity from renewables, but that’s another matter). So how do we get as close to that as possible in the real world? First, the government should bail out Detroit but mandate that the automakers’ product lines be entirely plug-in hybrid or electric within five years. As amazing as that would be, it wouldn’t be enough. A study (pdf) by a pair of MIT researchers shows that even if clean cars immediately captured 50 percent of new-car sales they’d replace only 3.5 percent of the installed base after a year and 18 percent after five years. So we also have to address existing cars, which leads us to… We also need to create a major industry around converting existing vehicles, from R&D to consumer incentives. And we should put the Vehicle Scrappage Bill on steroids by requiring that used internal combustion engine vehicles be converted or scrapped rather than resold, with incentives weighted toward conversion. (Building new cars, even clean ones, puts a burden on the environment, so rehabbing existing cars has an added green dimension.) This may strike many people as unrealistic fantasy (or perhaps socialist nightmare). After all, we’re still working out the battery technology; we’re facing limits to the raw materials for batteries; Detroit can’t keep up with the competition, let alone lead the way; converting combustion engine vehicles is expensive and many are simply too heavy; and even with sizable government assistance most consumers are going to be too strapped or too scared to do anything. But we have to recognize the magnitude of the crisis we face. Global warming has already set us up for very rough times, and our grandchildren will inhabit a different planet. Without unprecedented action it’ll be even worse. (For a particularly bleak outlook, check out this interview with James Lovelock.) While I doubt we’ll do what’s necessary, it’s not impossible. In fact, we’ve done it before. Depression-scarred Americans willingly accepted rationing, bought war bonds and contributed to scrap metal drives during World War II. At the same time, industry rapidly retooled and geared up to crank out mind-boggling numbers of ships, airplanes and tanks. The difference is that the threat then was in the tangible form of hostile armies sweeping the globe. If only we saw our cars’ tailpipes the same way. Eric Smalley is editor of Energy Research News. He has written about technology since 1987 and has freelanced for many publications including Discover, Scientific American, Wired News and The Boston Globe on topics ranging from quantum cryptography to global warming.

Speculation is swirling that First Solar -- the thin-film solar cell giant that makes cadmium telluride solar cells -- is taking a look at CIGS. No one says there are product plans. Instead, First Solar will start to examine CIGS in its labs, according to the rumor mill. Whether or not the company comes out with a CIGS product is impossible to say, but lab experimentation is generally an early sign of some interest in a market. Part of the speculation is tied to the recent hire of Markus Beck, the former chief scientist at Solyndra. Solyndra specializes in copper indium gallium selenide. First Solar also several months ago created a disruptive technologies department to look at alternative solar chemistries and technologies. It is run by Raffi Garabedian. The company is also checking out lab space in Silicon Valley, say sources. There is also the long-term view. Cad tel solar cells will not be as efficient as harvesting light from the sun as CIGS cells. First Solar cells now sport an efficiency of around 10 percent to 11 percent, and the company has manufactured them for years. Cad tel cells have a theoretical maximum of 19.6 percent. By contrast, CIGS makers are producing small batches of CIGS cells now at around the ten percent level and in the industry has just started. At the National Renewable Energy Labs, experimental cells have hit 19.9 percent and some say a cell that can do 20.2 percent already exists. Ultimately, CIGS cells could hit a mid-20 percent to low-30 percent efficiency level. CIGS cells, say proponents, can also be put on flexible foil substrates. Cad tel cells currently come out on glass substrates, which are more expensive and heavier to ship. On the other hand, First Solar has built a reputation for relentless execution and focus. It has concentrated on cad tel for over twenty years. Getting serious about CIGS would be a shift. The company has also hired other CIGS specialists like Benny Buller in the past. First Solar did not return calls.

I know the time for all of the "best of" lists and "predictions" is past but as an observer of the EV and alt-fuel industry, I think that it is going to be a very interesting year with some surprises. In many ways, I think 2009 will be the shakeout year. One obvious reason will be that the recession and difficult capital environment will continue to put pressure on established companies and startup companies. Another reason is all of the projects and plans that were previously in the development phase are due to start maturing, and it will be clear who the serious players are. So here are some of my predictions for the EV industry in 2009: 1) The first Tranche of ATVM loans will be heavily weighted toward legacy manufacturers and building domestic battery capacity: Perhaps the most important decisions that will impact the EV industry are being made now in the halls of the DOE. 70 applicants await decisions on whether their projects will receive direct, low interest loans from the government. While there is a bit of a "pigs at the trough" mentality going on, at the end of the day I think that the incoming administration will be looking at this program in the larger context of the economic stimulus and will therefore show a bias toward preserving established jobs and manufacturing capacity when it comes to vehicle programs. As for batteries, the lack of any domestic capacity is both a concern and a great opportunity to build a new industry. The big winners (but certainly not the only ones) will be GM, Ford and A123 in the first round of loans. 2) Recession and government involvement in funding advanced vehicle technology will accelerate the convergence of Silicon Valley and Detroit: For similar reasons outlined above, the DOE will attach conditions to loans that will either explicitly or implicitly encourage new companies to leverage old manufacturing capacity and job bases. Imagine, for example, that the DOE approves the application that Tesla has submitted for battery Model S assembly, but conditioned on them using an existing plant with excess capacity or a plant that is planned to be closed by one of the Big 3. The example is hypothetical, but you can bet the government is going to be very hands on in not just the "who" but the "how" these loans are implemented, and it will be done with an emphasis on protecting existing jobs and stopping the bleeding. The other force driving convergence will be the economy. Lack of capital will drive startups to get out of the manufacturing business and into the patents/components business, turning to the incumbents as their customers. 3) GM will announce a "pure EV" version of the Chevy Volt with 100+ miles range: This would be very easy for the company to do, since it basically would only require the use of a different battery chemistry and the depopulation of the ICE and genset. And it would be a popular move from the perspective of the EV community, but the hard business reason why GM will do this is because it will enable the company to more easily meet its commitments to the CARB ZEV mandate in 2011 and beyond. Add to this the announcement by Ford that its intends to produce a pure EV Ford Focus and you've got the cross town rivalry thing going as well. 4) Lotus will announce both a pure EV and range extended EV version of the Evora at the Geneva show, and will release at least one of the two: this is another no-brainer (and the rumor was reported by the FT). Lotus has enough experience with Tesla, Chrysler and who knows who else to have the confidence and desire to go it alone in what is one of the only growth segments for the automobile industry. The longer, more luxurious Evora will be a very compelling offering, although it will likely sacrifice the "+2" seating to accommodate the drivetrain. 5) All major players will seek equity tie-ups in battery makers to ensure supply: in the future world of EV production, guaranteed access to cell supply is absolutely vital. The current projections for demand for automotive lithium-ion batteries vastly outstrips current capacity. What is shaping up is the possibility of a battery squeeze play, with some being left wanting for supply. The situation was made worse by Panasonic's acquisition of Sanyo. Toyota has already made it clear they will develop batteries in-house (in addition to their JV with Panasonic). Daimler has already announced their tie up with Evonik. Nissan has a JV with NEC. GM will be looking to strengthen their ties to LG Chem (possibly through a US based JV) and Ford will be looking for a partner. With so few players in the cell manufacturing business, smaller players or those late to the game risk being squeezed out. Daryl Siry is the former chief marketing officer for Tesla Motors. He now consults on marketing and the automotive industry. You can read more here: http://darrylsiry.blogspot.com.

ZigBee is going to take off, thanks to smart metering, according to research firm InStat. Shipments of chips based around the 802.15.4 standard will rise to 292 million units in 2012, way up from the seven million sold in 2007. (ZigBee is based around 802.15.4) About one-third of the chips on the 802.15.4 protocol will be based around d a ZigBee stack, but that's still nearly 100 million chips sold. A leading driver of demand for these chips will be smart meters and sensors for home networks. With these home networks, electric meters will be able to turn down air conditioners or turn off the heater in dryers to save power. Some of the companies promoting ZigBee include Comverge, Tendril, Freescale and Trilliant. ZigBee started gaining traction in smart metering in 2006 and 2007. (Here's Trilliant's Bill Vogel and others ZigBee's rise from last summer and one of the earlier articles on this trend from 2007.) ZigBee chips can only transfer small amounts of data, but they consume very little power. Since the dryer doesn't have much to say to the meter, you can employ a wireless ZigBee nodule powered by a battery to convert your dryer into an intelligent appliance. It's about time. I recall back in 2003 when Philips and others began to tout ZigBee. They formed the group after the HomeRF alliance disbanded after creative differences and customer indifference. At the time, they really didn't know where or how it could be used. One person suggested it would be good for a wireless mouse. But since most people already had functioning wireless mice, there didn't seem to be a huge burning need. But the race isn't over yet. Some companies such as GainSpan are promoting WiFi for this purpose, which is already pervasive in many areas. You could have your home WiFi basestation handle all of this communications. Powerline networking also wants to control the home. So we shall see.