President Bush will announce today a proposal to halt greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. by 2025. The proposal includes an extensive focus on the power industry, which is responsible for nearly 40 percent of domestic emissions. Bush is slated to call for an elimination of power industry emissions within the next 10 or 15 years. Whatever the President offers today, it's clear there will be no specific plan for reducing emissions. "We're not favoring one policy tool over another," says one senior White House official. Instead, Bush will likely attempt to set the tone for an ongoing policy dialogue that seeks to avoid regulatory complications at the beginning of the next administration. A lawsuit filed Monday in San Mateo County Court by Tesla Motors alleges rival car maker Fisker Coachbuild stole the design concept for Tesla's planned WhiteStar sedan. Tesla hired Fisker founder Henrik Fisker and his COO Bernhard Koehler to help the EV company design the series hybrid drive train for Tesla's new car - the same design allegedly showed up in the Fisker Karma a few months later. However, according to The New York Times, the lawsuit states Fisker had no prior experience with hybrid drive train technology, which made him a perfect candidate to design a hybrid drive train. In a separate, but not unrelated lawsuit, Magna Powertrain is suing Telsa Motors for breach of contract, alleging Tesla failed to pay the parts company for the design of its failed two-speed EV transmission. Part of Magna's contract with Tesla had it building 40,000 WhiteStar transmissions. Harold Lima, head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency, said yesterday that state-run Petrobas may have discovered a 33 billion barrel oil field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. If confirmed, the Carioca field would be the world's third largest oil repository. However, like the supposed 375 billion gallons sitting under the Arctic Circle, the Carioca field presents a number of challenges. The deposits sit beneath 2,000 meters of water and an additional 2,000 meters of salt rock. Another field discovered down range from Carioca in 2006 is reported to hold five or six billion barrels. Shares of Spanish group Repsol and Britain's BG Group rose 9.3 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, on the news. Repsol and BG Group own significant stakes in the Carioca field.

A report in the ever-reputable Washington Times yesterday said President Bush will "announce as early as this week he wants Congress to pass a bill to combat global warming." Bush is facing pressure from members of the business and manufacturing communities, who fear abrupt regulatory changes beginning with the new administration. Possible future regulations include a cap on carbon emissions, limitations on other forms of industrial pollutants, and an end to such administration-approved practices as mountain-top mining and the construction of logging roads through national parks. However, it appears the administration isn't willing to go that far. A congressional spokesman, speaking after meetings between White House officials and Republic Congressional leaders, commented the Congress "is pretty much focused on a cap-and-trade, and anything less that you might propose would likely not be received favorably. Small steps aren't what they're looking at right now." Iberdrola chief Ignacio Galan to EdF: bid for us or "shut up." U.S. ethanol producers should expect a little more competition this summer. With corn prices jumping around $6 a bushel on the CBOT and corn ethanol hitting $2.55 a gallon at the pump, the pricing differential is high enough to make Brazilian ethanol profitable in the U.S. despite a hefty tariff. The University of São Paulo estimates wholesale sugarcane ethanol is priced around $1.64 a gallon and, with the $0.54 per gallon tariff, would sell for around $2.18 in the U.S. Pushing Brazilian ethanol prices down this year is a volume surplus of around 500 million metric tons, which will be refined into 20 billion litres of ethanol - enough to force downward price pressure in the domestic market and make export a good alternative to alleviate the oversupply. With U.S. corn prices expected to rise even higher over the summer - possibly topping $7 - and the tariff set to expire in 2009, it's possible we will see a lot of U.S. producers dropping out of business. Or relying on ever higher subsidies to prop up their failing industry.

All three presidential candidates back some mix of carbon regulation and renewable energy market stimulation. The detailed proposals that have emerged, however, can charitably be called incoherent. Hillary Clinton, as SunEdison’s Jigar Shah noted recently, has commented approvingly on the success of Germany’s feed-in tariff in spurring job creation and building a renewables market. So, taking this thought to its illogical extreme, let’s imagine Hillary wins in November and starts pushing for a national feed-in tariff. This possible reality begs the question, ‘are feed-in tariffs rational?’ Feed-in tariffs are designed to push renewables into electricity markets. A feed-in tariff generates consumer demand for installed systems by setting the renewable energy price at some level above the market rate. Instead of reducing upfront capital costs for the consumer, a feed-in tariff shortens the payback period on an installed system. The tariffs are typically set on a declining price schedule that reflects the effect of economies of scale on renewable technologies. Rates are locked in over the lifetime of a system from its installation date – typically 20 to 30 years. This both promotes certainty and reduces risk. Utilities are obligated to buy excess power generated from these systems at the above market rate. However, since feed-in tariffs are revenue-neutral by design, utilities are allowed to spread the marginal cost of the subsidy over their customer base. Thus, some individuals receive income from having installed systems, while others are charged a nominal monthly fee for the privilege of using green electricity. Let’s take a closer look at that declining schedule. Germany’s feed-in tariff will contribute to a 107.33 percent increase in installed PV capacity from 1.05 GW in 2006 to 2.177 in 2010, according to Prometheus Institute President Travis Bradford’s base case projection.

During that period, the average module price will decline 46.05 percent from €2.41 per watt to €1.30 per watt. The feed-in tariff for ground mounted PV systems is set to decline 23.5 percent from €0.40/kWh to €0.306/kWh, while the tariff for rooftop systems less than 30 kW will drop only 18.53 percent, from €0.518/kWh to €0.422/kWh. Averages prices are declining at a rate faster than the scheduled 1.5 percent tariff reduction. While the relationship is not expected to be one-to-one, this growing differential may have some long-term negative effects. Subsidies create market distortions by artificially manipulating price signals. The first year of Germany’s feed-in tariff sent a large number of PV producers into the market, all angling to fill the growing demand for PV. The entry rush constrained polysilicon supply, sending up market prices and appearing to prove out the feed-in tariff’s necessity. Two things happened in response to this – research and development funds were diverted to thin film PV and a host of new polysilicon producers started building factories in a bid to satisfy the global feedstock demand. Thin film PV is a low cost, low efficiency substitute for silicon-based PV, and the supply crunch provided an opportunity for this technology to gain a market foothold where one would have not existed otherwise. The nail in the feed-in tariff’s coffin is the coming expansion of polysilicon supply. Consumers will respond to dropping technology prices and comparatively high tariff rates by installing more capacity. That installed capacity expands and the price paid for that capacity declines while the German government pays increasingly higher subsidies is perverse. Perhaps even more odd is the privileging of PV over other, more appropriate forms of renewable energy, like wind power. Germany’s open expanses are more wind-whipped than sun-drenched. Last fall the German government made noise about recalculating the scheduled tariff decrease, sending equity researchers into fits, and forcing them to revise their demand models downwards. In other words, seven years after the program started, PV capacity may still largely be responsive to the tariff price signals. This is not a good for sign for what many had hoped would be an independently moving market in a few years’ time. This also contravenes the certainty and risk-reduction that long-term policies aim to establish. Other problems may also surface, like the lack of interconnection standards or ongoing utility payment and ratemaking schemes that have yet to be fully resolved. Of course, Germany only has four major utility companies that will need to deal with these problems. The U.S. has more than 3,000. A U.S. policy aimed at increasing renewables capacity that also establishes a sustainable market with clear price signals may require taking an opposite approach. Instead of pushing renewables onto the market, pulling them through an RPS-based quota system will build a strong, technology-agnostic renewables base backed by renewable energy certificate trading. This gets at the low-hanging fruit first, giving time for high-priced technologies like PV to reach market competitive prices without market distortion. In the mean time, we'll maintain our watch for the killer amp.

Silver Spring Networks is the fourth smart grid company to pull significant funding within the last month, picking up $17.4 million in its Series C round. Edison Electric Institute and Foundation Capital backed the round. Silver Spring manufactures IP-based equipment for energy networking, widespread adoption of which may help build a broadband-over-powerline energy/information architecture. Three other smart grid companies - GridPoint, eMeter, and Ambient - have raised money within the last month. Rising food prices tipped the scales against Haitian Prime Minister Jacques Eduoard Alexis, whose government collapsed this weekend amidst food riots in Port-au-Prince over the cost of rice and beans. While the U.N. World Food Program struggles to hit its increasingly high aid targets for the country, finance ministers are meeting in Washington this week to discuss a global crises that is already affecting 33 countries, according to World Bank President Robert Zoellick. Both the IMF and the World Bank place principal blame for the food crisis on U.S. subsidies supporting corn ethanol and other types of biofuels. The crisis has sparked a wave of trade protectionism, most notably in Southeast Asia. Filipino Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap argued, "free trade should be flowing," in response to increasingly constrained domestic grain markets. Iberdrola will announce tomorrow whether it plans to join the $22 billion bid over nuclear power company British Energy.  Since first announcing it would consider the sale of its 35.2 percent, the British Government has taken up a critical portfolio review, deciding only this weekend it would clear the way for a sale. While France's EdF and Germany's RWE are widely believed to be front runners in the acquisition bidding, a late bid from Iberdrola may help bolster that company's position in fending off a possible takeover of its own within the next few months. According to one Spanish analyst, "Iberdrola would not have difficulty finding the financing" to acquire British Energy.

What a week here in Boston. Kudos to the MIT Energy Club for putting on a great conference yesterday and a killer (though totally off the record) after party. Oh, and a special note for Jim Woolsey: don't worry Jim, Sam and I picked up the check. Here's this week's list of the best greentech events on both coasts. As always, if you have an event to list for next week, e-mail me at englander at greentechmedia dot com. April 13

• Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) and a panel of environmental entrepreneurs, 4:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m. @ Rapaporte Treasure Hall, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA

April 14

• Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet, 5:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m. @ Science B, 1 Oxford St., Harvard University

April 15

• Energy Technology Innovation Policy Seminar Series: "Biofuel Production, Poverty Reduction and Private Sector Engagement: What Can We Learn from the Brazilian Experience?", 9:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. @ Belfer Center Library, Littauer 369, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
• MIT Energy Club Lecture Series: Alex Cattelan, GM E-Flex Propulsion System, 12:00 p.m. - 1:00 p.m. @ MIT Building E51, Cambridge, MA
• MIT Energy Club Oil & Gas Subcommunity Lecture: Technology of the Oil & Gas Industry, 6:00 p.m. - 7:00 p.m. @ MIT Building 66-160, Cambridge, MA

April 16

• Northwest Solar Expo @ Oregon Convention Center, Portland, OR
• Cost, Conflict and Climate: US Challenges in the World Oil Market with Dr. Severin Borenstein, 11:30 a.m. @ Chevron, Building D., Room 2193, 6001 Bollinger Canyon Rd., San Ramon, CA
• Solar Electric Design 101, 4:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m. @ The Alternative Energy Store, 43 Broad St., Suite A408, Hudson, MA
• Ross Geldpsan on Facing Reality as an Aspiring Reporter or Activist, 7:00 p.m. -9:00 p.m. @ Lown Auditorium, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA
• Emerging Innovations in Environmental Strategy: How Leading Companies Are Redesigning "Business as Usual", 7:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m., UC Berkeley

April 17

• Northwest Solar Expo @ Oregon Convention Center, Portland, OR
• Global Marine Renewable Energy Conference, 7:30 a.m. - 5:30 p.m. @ Millenium Broadway Hotel, 145 W. 44th St., New York, NY
• Regulation and Global Climate Change Seminar: "An Analysis of U.S. Carbon Pricing Legislation" with Prof. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 12:00 p.m. - 1:30 p.m. @ Bell Hall, 5th Floor Belfer Building, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
• Reconciling China's Economic Growth with Control of Air Pollution and Carbon Emissions, 4:00 p.m. - 5:30 p.m. @ Room S050, CGIS South, Harvard University
• Panel on Public Investment in Energy, 6:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m. @ Andersen Auditoriu, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley

April 18

• Northwest Solar Expo @ Oregon Convention Center, Portland, OR
• Global Marine Renewable Energy Conference, 7:30 a.m. - 3:00 p.m. @ Millenium Broadway Hotel, 145 W. 44th St., New York, NY
• U.S.-China Green Energy Conference: Fueling a Clean Energy Future, 7:30 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. @ PG&E Auditorium, 77 Beale St., San Francisco, CA

April 19

• Northwest Solar Expo @ Oregon Convention Center, Portland, OR

Other Upcoming Events: Nordic Green'08: April 21-22, 2008 @ SRI Building, Menlo Park, CA (50% off promotion) Greentech Media's PV Annual 2008 Showcase: Shedding Light on Solar, May 28, 2008 @ Westin Waltham Boston, 70 Third Ave., Waltham, MA

Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers thinks about three numbers when he falls asleep at night: 3, 12, 41. His company is the third largest greenhouse gas emitter in the country and number 12 internationally. If Duke Energy were a country, it would be the 41st largest emitter in the world. At today's MIT Energy Conference Rogers decried the fact that "we're still operating on electricity 1.0." But, he believes, that if today's attendees "can develop the technology, I'm going to be able to scale it." But, with an annual capital budget of $5 billion, what has Rogers done to move his mission forward? Not much it seems, especially when you consider his admission that Rogers has not spoken with his counterparts in India and China about developing technologies and markets to address their companies' contributions to the climate crisis. Although, because "part of the challenge is to take the four million customers and five states [he] serve[s] and help them across that bridge" to a low carbon future, it's easy to assume his domestic focus is pretty sharp. Rogers is "a great believer in an economy wide cap-and trade," "though "the first thing we can do is fund technology. We can do that. We don't have to wait for cap-and-trade legislation. That's not going to happen next year. It will happen in nine or ten."

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, MIT President Susan Hockfield, and Massachusetts Secretary of Energy and Environment Ian Bowles, were on hand at a press conference today to announce the beginning of a partnership between MIT and Germany's Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems. Citing the history of cooperation between Germany and Massachusetts on greentech, such as the collaboration between Q-Cells and Evergreen Solar, Steinmeier said he believed the partnership would be successful in "bringing together the brilliant minds of our two countries." With $5 million from the Mass Tech Collaborative and $1 million from the National Grid, the new Fraunhofer USA Center for Sustainable Energy Systems will focus on developing solar and energy efficiency technologies. The new center will be headed by Evergreen Solar alum Nol Browne. In response to the announcement, Prometheus Institute president Travis Bradford said, "you don't see that every day. And you can quote me on that."