One of the great things about the Internet is that it makes it a lot easier to look back at older predictions and scoff. This past May, for instance, oil analysts from major investment banks squared off on the future of oil prices. Arjun Murti of Goldman Sachs released a report then, according to the Telegraph, saying that demand from China and lackluster growth in supply will push oil near the $200 mark over the coming months. “We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head. A super-spike end game may be in the early stages of playing out,� Murti wrote, according to the paper. During the same week Lehman Brothers' Edward Morse speculated in a report that Saudi Arabia may boost output by 1.3 million barrels a day next year, more than the growth in demand. This could push prices toward $90 a barrel. The Saudis recently said that three new fields have entered production, he noted at the time. And the country has used oil for diplomatic overtures before. A weakened correlation between the dollar and oil prices may also help push prices down. And what happened? Oil prices are around $81 a barrel today, but not because of the factors Lehman's Morse outlined. Sinking demand and the worldwide credit shock caused oil prices to plummet. Ironically, Lehman has been one of the biggest victims of the crash. So that's what you get for being right for the wrong reasons. Side note: In May, I also had my cat, Fraulein Katze, walk across my keyboard to come up with a prediction. She came up with $132 a barrel. She's got to start thinking more outside of the cat box. (Disclosure: Frost and Sullivan sometimes employ her as a consultant.). In many ways, the whole episode points out one of the underlying, scary facts about the oil business: It is wildly unpredictable. I recall once attending an oil technology conference in Qatar in 2005. Oil had just come down from $70 a barrel to the mid-50s range. Despite the drop, companies were enjoying a surge in profits. So you’d expect everyone to be excited.

Not so. Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, second deputy prime minister and minister of energy and industry for Qatar, went out of his way to remind the audience that boom times only last for brief periods.

It can take 10 to 20 hours to fill out all the paperwork to qualify for a solar rebate, according to Sungevity founder Danny Kennedy. It's enough to make a grown electrical contractor cry. It is also problem the company – which has created a software application that lets it conduct a residential solar estimate over the Web – hopes to cure. Sungevity is trying to get public utility commissions and utilties to approve e-signatures for the forms involved in solar installations, tax credits and rebates. Right now, solar contractors have to send in various forms, get original signatures and conduct all sorts of annoying clerical work. Sometimes, a developer might have to send and receive several overnight letters via Federal Express or UPS on a single job. "It is kind of unsexy stuff, but it is one of the biggest concerns for contractors," Kennedy said, adding that he believes California will go along. Sungevity will discuss its plans more at Solar Power International, the all-star solar cavalcade taking place this week in San Diego. E-signatures, of course, would also complement Sungevity's business strategy. The company's application crunches satellite data, your utility bill and other data to provide a fairly accurate quote online with 24 hours. A traditional solar estimate requires that someone climb up on your roof and measure stuff. Sungevity now uses the tool for its own solar projects, but has talked about working with other solar contractors. (RoofRay, which emerged a little after Sungevity, also offers a remote estimate service.) Conducting the estimate online can cut the cost of the solar installation by around 10 percent and cut out 80 percent of the on-site estimates.