Planners for the 2012 Summer Olympics in London must have looked on in horror as 2008 drummers banged their way in synchronicity through the opening minutes of the Beijing games two weeks ago. The ensuing four hours sent them searching for the long knives. An Ernst & Young report released this week probably had the same effect on the UK's renewables planners. The consulting group's periodic Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Indices had China moving up from sixth place to fourth and into a tie with Spain, though still behind the U.S., Germany, and India. The UK dropped back to sixth place on the strength of China's growing renewables manufacturing base and its own inability to finalize a workable renewables policy. Though most of the news you read from Greentech Media talks about China in terms of its solar manufacturing capacity, wind is the real breakthrough sector there. The International Energy Agency projected China would reach 5 GW of installed capacity by 2010 - it got there in 2007. It's expected the CCP's target of 30 GW by 2020 will be shattered within seven years. Manufacturing capacity in the country is pegged at close to 9 GW, with few producers feeling the same input constraints that have hampered GE and Suzlon. The CCP is likely to increase its target well before that date. With the uncanny ability to direct large sums of money into virtually any project it sees fit, the CCP is on its way to becoming the largest renewables developer in the world. As an added benefit, if they run out of windy spots, you can bet the Chinese will figure out a way to make the wind blow elsewhere. The British, meanwhile, have been slow to implement a concerted renewables policy. Having a voting population makes consensus a sticky issue sometimes. The government launched its Renewable Energy Strategy in June with ambitious proposals to put the country on course to meets its 20% by 2020 EU obligations. However, the RES, which calls for 33 GW of installed wind capacity by 2020, also requires a two year consultation period. This means no significant projects will get off the ground before 2010, leaving the country only 10 years to deploy something close to 50 GW of renewables capacity. There have also been complaints that the UK renewables obligation program - its market deployment mechanism - costs too much and provides too little incentive for the British to deploy renewables at the required pace. A reworking of this incentive program may help reverse the UK's renewables fortunes. In general, however, the story of the UK renewables has been one of overpromising and underperforming. The UK should have much more going for it given its large wind and marine renewables resources. Building up these resources is even more pressing now since it looks like their grand nuclear plan is in meltdown. Perhaps the British should look to the Chinese for advice on getting it done - what they lack in representative democracy, they more than make up for in sheer will power.

Customers and cash: smart metering specialist Trilliant now has both of the two crucial elements needed to make it in the increasingly crowded smart metering market. The Redwood City-based company (which should not be confused with the Linux specialist Trillian) has raised $40 million from Mission Point Capital Partners and zouk (no cap) ventures to help it expand into the smart metering market. Trilliant has already installed about 750,000 meters and participated in the large Hydro One deployment in Canada. It also has a relationship with Advanced Innovations to bring smart grid technology worldwide. (We spoke to the company earlier this year at the Freescale Technology Forum.). So far, smart metering has been one of the most efficient paths to making money in green tech. These devices essentially turn down lights, shut off dryers and curb electricity demand in relatively unobtrusive ways. While homeowners or building owners can program many of these devices, some deals are structured so that the utility tinkers with your air conditioner remotely. Commercial customers and households end up consuming less electricity (and get lower power bills) while utilities avoid brown-outs. If utilities can get enough customers in a region to sign up, they can also avoid building expensive peaker plants. Two of the more successful greentech IPOs--Comverge and EnerNoc--were both focused on smart grid technologies. The field, though, is becoming increasingly crowded. There are companies like Trilliant who have been making products for twenty years, but also a host of start ups. How many are there? Beats me. I ran out of fingers and toes a while ago, but put it this way: at every green tech conference, there are bound to be at least two smart metering companies. And since many are basing their technologies around open standards like Zigbee, the battle won't be won by touting a new, exotic technology. Instead, success will revolve around execution, funding and customer relationships. With the Hydro One deal and the funding, you can argue that Trilliant is in the Magic Circle (or is it the Mystical Parallelogram?) Another company in that league is Tendril. Twenty utilities are tinkering with its smart metering technology and one is going to commercial deployment. Other names to keep in mind: Threshold (which mostly focuses on the complimentary task of controlling devices within the home), Agilewaves and EnergyHub. And then there is the one everyone loves: Silver Spring Networks, which has hardware and software for monitoring neighborhood-wide consumption of power, gas and water. Think of it as a geographical hub for buildings serving as LAN points.

“How do we know we’re not in a cleantech bubble?� This is a question David Chen gets asked a few times a week. Chen is Morgan Stanley’s Head of West coast Clean Technology Banking and he spoke in Menlo Park last Friday at an AlwaysOn breakfast event, a warm-up for their GoingGreen event in September. So, how do we know we’re not in a cleantech bubble? David answered that question:

• The end markets are real and large.

• Investors are more discerning.

• The tremendous amount of capital required means fewer “me-tooâ€? stories.

• The coming grid parity environment can sustain multiple winners.

Nevertheless he still sees “volatile stocks driven more by momentum than fundamentals� as bankers and investors engage in an “obsessive quest for the next First Solar.� He had a few more choice observations: On M&A:

• “You’re going to continue to see industrial companies buy their way into the solar market,â€? he said, citing the Bosch acquisition of Ersol.

• “We’ll see more vertical integration in solar,â€? he said, in regards to SunPower’s acquisition of PowerLight.

• “Look for more ethanol roll-ups as buying underperforming ethanol firms becomes cheaper than creating them.â€?

• “Expect big auto to invest in EV powertrain and battery technology.â€?

On IPOs:

• “We think 2009 will be the start of cleantech IPOs with the real activity happening in 2010.â€?

In closing he added that greentech “is the single largest opportunity for wealth creation since the industrial revolution.�