1. PWC has come out with a pretty useful report on cleantech in general, but what's interesting is that they've made it a very car- and meter-centric perspective. Are cars and meters really the center of the cleantech universe? It's an interesting way of looking at things, and it has some merit, as they are key segments in the electricity and transportation value chains. However, it really ignores the commercial and industrial aspects of cleantech, in favor of residential. But it's quite interesting to see the implicit shift away from electricity generation and fuel production as the centers of the universe.
2. Eric Wesoff has a good column with a lot of venture investors' perspectives on nuclear power as an investment area, and it's unclear what the role of VCs in nuclear power could effectively be. But it reminds me of a recurring theme in my conversations with a lot of investors and entrepreneurs lately, around the role of VCs in cleantech in general: There are a lot of cleantech sectors and business models that don't fit well with the traditional "10x in 5 years" venture capital model. Does that mean they're bad business or investment opportunities? No. What we're learning in Eric's interviews and elsewhere is more about the limitations of the venture model as traditionally applied, rather than learning about the limitations of cleantech.
3. The NVCA put out the results of their annual investor survey (note: link opens PDF). You've probably heard by now that 90% of those surveyed are expecting the venture industry to significantly shrink over the next five years. You've probably also heard that cleantech is the sector most pointed to by investors as an area of future growth. But I want to make sure and draw everyone's attention to the results that show that investors have greater expectations of growth for later stage investments than for early stage investments. So as always we're left with the question: If VCs aren't investing in the early stage companies anymore, how will they get up and running to provide dealflow for all the later-stage investors?
4. Everyone's focused on the Copenhagen negotiations right now. I'm not. I don't think there will be much direct impact on cleantech startups from anything that's decided there. What I do think is that there might be a strong indirect impact from Copenhagen... by getting it over with. Besides all the health care reform hullaballoo right now, what's holding up energy and climate legislation in the U.S. is that lawmakers are waiting to see what comes out of Copenhagen so they can line it up with the legislative proposals being put forth. And when that legislation does come to the fore, whatever happens in terms of cap and trade, etc., I do expect it to include a lot of new incentives for things like energy efficiency and the like. And that will have a very direct impact on startups in such sectors. So therefore, the most important result from Copenhagen, from the cleantech VC perspective, will be its conclusion. ...That's not to say we can't be hoping for a productive outcome, of course!
