Are you frustrated that the current macroeconomic mess, and the resultant slamming shut of the IPO window, has denied you the ability to invest in some of the bigger-name privately-held solar companies? Are you skeptical or optimistic about the prospects for a wave of solar exits over the next 18 months?
Well then, it's your lucky day. As a proxy, I've talked InTrade into establishing a new market in the IPO prospects of four high-profile solar startups
. Now you can go and purchase or sell contracts that pay out if Ausra, Miasole, Nanosolar, and/or Optisolar IPO by December 2009. Just follow the link above to see -- you'll need to open and fund an InTrade account if you want to participate.
I was inspired by PEHub's Alex Haislip, who yesterday asked
if anyone had ideas about ways to evaluate the risk/reward profile of the large "venture capital" rounds that have gone into these companies. If enough of a liquid market can be formed around these companies' IPO prospects, it might give an indication of that answer...
InTrade and other "virtual markets" can be an effective way
of determining the consensus (albeit not always correct) judgment about the likelihood of political, economic, financial, etc. events -- you can also see how they're evaluating the ongoing Veepstakes, for example. Unlike polling or other types of info-gathering efforts, it represents people putting real money down and thus can be a better indication of what they're really expecting to see happen.
So sign up with InTrade and start trading! We'll check in later and see what we're learning...