New Hickory?

What a historic day!

Most pundits seem intent upon comparing Obama’s likely presidential role to that of past presidents like Kennedy, FDR, and Lincoln.

My guess, however, it that it will be much more like that of Andrew Jackson—in form, at least, if not in terms of specific policies.  Jackson was really the first president to effectively use the powerful tool of public opinion (as confirmed by the voters) to lend critical support to policies of his that were unpopular in the Senate.  He also was pragmatic about shifting allegiances with legislative leaders to get whatever results he thought were necessary for the country.  It is in these two ways in particular that I expect an Obama administration will aspire to be Jacksonian.

What does this mean for cleantech and climate change policies?

I think 2009 is going to see a lot of appeals to the public, rallying support for getting something—anything—done.  Anyone looking at the makeup of the senate and the geographical realities involved in climate change politics (ie: getting southern and midwestern senators of either party on board) will recognize that any effort to put in place climate change regulation will need to overcome a lot of resistance in the Senate in particular.  If a serious effort is going to be made to get something done in 2009 (which is the plan I hear from people who should know something about it), it will require a moral high ground of having marshalled strong, vocal public support in favor of achieving significant outcomes.

I look at the amazing sea of faces on the Mall today and I do believe Obama has a mandate to selectively target at least a few major issues for this kind of treatment.  So far climate change seems to be on the short list of such issues.  Here’s hoping!

Secondly, I expect that—while the goal of doing something “significant” will be held true—the approach will be very pragmatic in terms of what the specific policies are and how the political effort is pursued.  In other words, expect to see a “purple” effort if climate change policy is pursued as a key initiative.  And expect to see a lot of effort to give southern and midwestern senators reasons to feel okay getting on board.  Carve-outs for energy efficiency-sourced carbon offsets, for example, would go a long way to making cap-and-trade seem less punitive to southern states.  Carve-outs for agriculturally-sourced offsets would help similarly in the midwest.  And even such “givens” as a cap-and-trade system instead of a carbon tax remain open questions—we don’t know what the final form of the climate change policy will look like because we don’t know who on the Hill will be tapped as champions (for me, I suspect McCain will play a crucial role, but that’s just a guess).

We already see the example of this in the economic stimulus bill and what it includes for green collar jobs creation:  Everything and the kitchen sink.  All good ideas welcomed, and whatever gets key support gets thrown in. This will continue to be the pattern, I expect.  And that generally means good things for getting SOMETHING done, but also means we can’t plan on what that something will specifically be…

On a day when 2 million people gather to witness history—and on a day when Chrysler sells a third of themselves to Fiat because they need Fiat’s help in learning how to make smaller cars—there are a lot of good reasons to believe that major change is coming.  But with a lot left to be determined as well…

Enjoy the day, everyone!

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