True or False: China Will Be a Bigger Solar Market than the U.S.

Of course it will be a larger solar market than the US.
We lost our edge in nearly every other market (education, wealth, income, health, environment, the list long) of significance.  No reason this should any different.
It’s simple:  They have the MONEY to buy it.  We have payments and high interest to pay (to them ironically).  Who do you think is going to get shipped to first?

At this stage of the game PV will only succeed in China with generous subsidies - that’s generally true for all countries with a few localized exceptions. IF PV costs keep dropping the technology will reach price points that will be competitive in the US/Europe/Japan well before they are competitive in China. We can be hopeful and imagine how China could subsidize the industry with a few GWs worth of projects in the near term but their best bet strategically is to stay on the sidelines and play the manufacturing end rather than the market end.

Can you jump from 50 MW to 2 GW in two years? Spain already answered that question. Yes.

It is clear that those announcements are form than content.
Long-range goals build on the foundation of the short-range goals. We would like hearing news that are reasonable and feasible at current stage.
The china government agency is willing to grant subsidy on wind and nuclear energy in 2015.  said http://www.orientalsolar.cn

China has the money, knowledge and workforce to get begind solar power in a way that the US cannot.

I’m sure this is going to be a market the East lead in.
Lisa

What stage of the game are we in ?  Although I may banter on here and there, lets talk facts. 
“At this stage of the game PV will only succeed in China with generous subsidies - that’s generally true for all countries with a few localized exceptions” - please back this up
“IF PV costs keep dropping the technology will reach price points that will be competitive in the US/Europe/Japan well before they are competitive in China.” - why? if China values installing PV along 1000s of miles of transmission lines in order to bolster the grid, perhaps that $/kwh is acceptable to the Chinese, even with a low $/kwh from the grid. I counter by saying that if PV prices keep falling rapidly, China is well positioned to take advantage b/c of the significantly low cost of labor. I know that labor is only a small component of overall project cost but as component prices plummet, labor cost gains importance.
“We can be hopeful and imagine how China could subsidize the industry with a few GWs worth of projects in the near term but their best bet strategically is to stay on the sidelines and play the manufacturing end rather than the market end.”- why?
Yes Spain made that jump but are you aware of the post Gold Rush ramifications over there? The lack of rigidity in administration of subsidies resulted in poor workmanship and underperforming systems for which the Gov’t is now rightfully saying they won’t pay the $/kwh. There’s a huge opportunity in China and elsewhere to learn from Spain and create a validated PV economy/market that is self sustaining. How? Read my book- LOL!
Please help me understand your position. I am always willing for enlightenment. Thanks

interesting discussions.  I have no doubt China will surpass US, just a matter of time.  They have the resources and the need.

What stage of the game? The US installation market is undeveloped and the regulatory end of things is uncertain. . Manufacturing costs have a long way to come down. We’re still in a stage where every goofy product gets some VC money. It’s like watching old B&W clips of ill-fated flying machines trying to fly. PV certainly isn’t mature yet. PV still needs subsidies. Everyone here should know that. Does that answer your question?

The US (12 cents/kWh), Europe (15-30 cents/kWh), and Japan (20 cents/kWh) pay much more for electricity than the Chinese (less than 5 cents/kWh).  PV electricity costs over 20 cents/Watt. From this it follows that PV is closer to being competitive with the grid in the US/EU/Japan than it is to being competitive in China. Does that make sense?

PV along transmission lines? Maybe in a few special cases (substations I could see) but I think right-of-ways are hard enough to come-by as it is. The transformation of low voltage to transmission voltage would be a logistical problem with such a scheme. Security would also be a big issue. I don’t think the Chinese would see much value in such an experiment.

2009 should be the last year of the goofy product game. VCs are sharpening pencils like never before, just like the rest of us.
Low voltage to high voltage standard designs include step up transformers & standard utility hardware, to achieve t line voltages needed. These systems go in daily in EU and starting to in US. Systems over certain sizes (2MW usually) suffer increased costs and/or reduced performance if all that amperage is pushed thru at only 480V.
I agree with all of your points and appreciate you clarifying.

The move from coal power is inevitable. The true cost of coal power is not reflected in today’s pricing because it does not take into account of the impending environmental damage that will reach a critical point before governments fully cease and decease coal power.
Even though China is not on the forefront in environmental policy at this point in time - given its massive population, its demographical shift to a more mid-socio economical society and its dictatorial hand where policies can be implemented at the wave of a hand - it can easily surpass USA on solar power at a blink of an eye.