More Cellulosic Ethanol Will Soon Be for Sale. But Who's Buying?

I, for one, will be buying Ethanol for my Chevy Avalanche anywere and everytime.  If more becomes available, oil producing nations will have to respond by ending this ridiculous run up in price - and if they don’t, I say - send them back to the stone age by NOT buying oil (desperation WILL force prices lower), at least in the quantities that’s grown them up to be wealthy beyond imagination. 

Not me - I’m going to put pure grain alcohol in my HumVee just to stick it to those crazy oil producing nations. Why, those Canadians and Norwegians are just trying to screw us over here in ‘Murka by “running out” of oil! How dare the earth’s geological processes impede our god-given right to cheap gasoline? And who told China they could have cars, too? The nerve. I’m with pauldbek, the run up in prices is ridiculous, and when ‘Murka stops using oil the prices will miraculously get lower, because obviously there aren’t any other humans who use oil. Or something.

“one of the major challenges the ethanol industry faces today—low demand compared with production capacity”

Excuse me?  What about the challenge of economically moving enough plant mass in to these ethanol plants.  Perhaps the cheerleaders in the media will start to ask tougher questions:  How many rail cars worth of “plant waste”, corn stubble, or whatever will be required to make all this “$1 ethanol” they promise?

Rather than blaming gas station operators for not opening their wallets to pay upwards of $100,000+ to put in E85 tanks (assuming they could get permitted), why not blame the *last* generation of ethanol advocates who were telling us 10 years ago that CORN ethanol would solve all of our problems?

Why is it that there’s always a “next” generation that we have to wait for?  Why does it seem that its always the false prophets from the last generation who, rather than admitting they were wrong (dead wrong) about their promises, line up with their hands out for *more* taxpayer dollars to fund the next generation?

And why does the media continually to uncritically evaluate all of these claims?  Cheerleading for venture capitalists is not reporting.  Its propaganda.

Uncritical articles like this are going to delay both energy security and pollution-free energy technology.

It is unlikely that recent innovative developments like those discussed in the story will actually drive motor fuel prices back down to the $1 per gallon level. After all, even with significant increases in biofuels production levels, oil is going to continue to supply the majority of our liquid fuels for some time.

For many years engaged citizen have voiced concerns about the ecological and environmental costs and long term economic viability of using grain-derived ethanol for motor fuels. Grain’s limitations have been recognized for decades, which is why researchers have been working for these many years to develop “next generation” renewable fuels technologies that can use non-food biomass rather than grain as feedstocks. How big these technologies can become as a fraction of the total fuels market is not just a function of how “good” the technology is, or at what cost the fuels can be produced. It also depends in large measure on the size of the market (the demand). More discussion of this aspect is warranted, as well as of the roles conservation and efficiency can play in reducing motor fuel demand.

The emergence of non-food biomass for biofuels technologies represents an exciting development but rationality and perspective are needed rather than strict pro or con gushing. Fuels produced in this fashion can be a great thing and a significant part of the solution to reducing our dependence on fossil petroleum if we do it right. But like so many things, if we do it wrong it can also lead to big problems, exacerbating our planet’s current slide towards global climate/environmental disaster (now being driven by 6 billion plus people largely pursuing business as usual approaches for energy and fuels production and use.)

Next generation biofuels needn’t be an either/or proposition. They represent a needed development. But let’s take care to bring them forward correctly.

The price per gallon for gasoline and ethanol may be close today but it’s the price per mile that counts. Ethanol produces less energy per gallon, (but more horsepower). When ethanol gets under about $1.70 / gal. demand will at least triple. We can blend up to 22 billion gallons with gasoline, (15% of all fuel), without even considering flex-fuel engines. Get the price down and you can sell all you want!