Five Inconvenient Greentech Truths

"One of my favorite stats is that more people are killed by falling coke machines every year than genetically modified foods," Tom Todaro, CEO of Targeted Growth, told me last year. "Eighty percent of the corn and soy sold worldwide has biotech inside of it. You ate a transgene at breakfast this morning if you had cereal; I guarantee it."

Both sides make really good points, but the impending growth of the world population, the increased use of biofuels, and the growth in demand for food in China pretty much make some form of genetic enhancement inevitable. (Disclosure: Like clean coal and nuclear, I support genetic engineering with caution.)

4. Subsidies to Multimillionaires
Personally, this is the most distasteful part of the green revolution. In Silicon Valley, I can't tell you how many times I've had to listen to some libertarian blowhard yammer on about the evils of government regulation. Many of these same people, however, now invest in and/or work for clean energy companies that rely on government subsidies or research grants. Higher taxes and carbon payments will cover some of this. 

But it's oddly true that alternative energy won't get off the ground without government support. And government support is largely going to well-organized companies, which happen to be run by successful people.  Mascoma, which has received millions in VC funding, for instance, has also received funds from the states of New York, Michigan and Tennessee, although Tennessee has scaled back. Tesla Motors received tax breaks to make luxury cars for millionaires in California.

I am not against these grants. I'd just like to see a little more gratitude. 

5. Success for Haliburton and Other Energy Giants
This came out of a conversation with Todd Kimmel of Advanced Technology Ventures. The theory goes like this: In order to hit their requirements for renewable energy, utilities will have to invest more in geothermal technologies (see Google Funds Hot Rock Technology and Altarock Breaks New Ground With Geothermal Power). Geothermal involves digging deep holes into the Earth and seeking out geological formations with positive profiles.

And who better than the companies that have been drilling oil wells for years? A number of start-ups will also do well, but you can bet that the big guys aren't going to be left out. Besides, they already own bulldozers and the other equipment you need to do this.

The same thing could happen in biofuels. The short, convoluted history of Imperium Renewables shows that biofuel companies will have a tough time trying to scale up (see Another Setback for Imperium). Thus, to succeed, many will have to partner with established companies. In other words: Hello. Chevron.

The rise of biofuels could hurt Big Oil, Kimmel theorized. Instead of partnering with oil companies, small biofuel makers could team up with distributors or others, bypassing Big Oil directly. Still, that could be a tough needle to thread. Look at the difficulty gas station outlets associated with the big oil companies have had trying to put in ethanol pumps.