By the end of the decade, the solar industry will install 135 gigawatts of PV projects all over the world.
It's a staggering number. It took the industry four decades to reach 100 gigawatts of cumulative capacity globally. In 2020, the world will see more than that installed in a single year.
That's the latest prediction from GTM Research, which just released its new global demand report. "We think that solar is basically by 2018 going to be the resource of choice," said GTM senior analyst Adam James, who wrote the report.
The market, which has historically been concentrated in Europe, America and Asia, will become much more diverse. China, the U.S. and Japan will round out the top three. But by then, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East could account for 17 percent of demand.
Source: GTM Research
So what does the world look like in 2020 under such a scenario? GTM's Adam James took to Twitter to explain. Below are some of the most interesting pieces of information from the report:
Fun facts about global PV demand: 1) We expect 55 GW in 2015, 36% y/y growth. That's a huge rebound over the stagnant 2% growth last year.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
2) We expect emerging markets to account for 17% of growth over the next 5 years. A far cry from the 1% they've accounted for historically.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
3) In 2020, we expect that the annual global market will hit 135 GW, for a cumulative market of almost 700 GW.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
(For context, that means the cumulative PV market in 2020 will be about the size of all the electrical generating capacity in Europe today!)
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
4) APAC will continue to dominate - with about 50% of global demand over the next five years. China alone is about 25%.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
5) The U.S. and Japan are tied for second-largest markets over the next 5 years, with about 10% of demand coming from each.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
That means that 45% of demand is expected to come from just 3 countries - China, Japan, and the U.S.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
6) How much PV is that, Adam? *Roughly* half of new global capacity additions over the next five years.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
7) Europe is expected to become a global leader once again. Not in volume, but in pioneering new business models and regulatory policies.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
8) Huge headroom in China and India are key. Increasing power needs will drive solar adoption with capital markets pushing the accelerator.
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
9) On the downside, a China credit crunch (from housing crisis) could lead to a serious market contraction, with global ramifications
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015
10) On upside, climate - with drought as a specific lever - could accelerate adoption far beyond our Base-Case & frankly, past our High Case
— Adam S. James (@Adam_S_James) June 17, 2015Tweets can't do the full report justice. Get your hands on the global demand outlook to read all the juicy details about where solar is headed in every region.
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