Today's Date: Sunday, May 11, 2008
Global Solar Q&A: Continued
Bullet Arrow March 21, 2008

Q: So once you apply for final approval for Generation 2, it won’t be ready for sale until another year after that?
T:
The customers that partner with us to make modules with the strings are the ones that will face that challenge.... But I would be off base if I said it would be six months, because you know how long it’s taking a new module to get approved. And when you are talking about BIPV (building-integrated PV) markets, I’m even going to throw the ball out there a lot farther, it could be even three to five years by the time you get into all the roofing, electric codes and new electric standards for that type of material. That’s very developmental there, and there will be prototyping over the next couple years all around the map of solar. But I’m not going to hang my hat, or our whole business strategy, on that tomorrow.

Q: Some analysts have forecast that the solar industry might have more supply than demand during the few next years, pressing prices downward. Are you concerned about that?
T:
The markets are moving so quickly it’s really hard to tell when that will start, or [if] so much new product and demand will come on that it will extend it out. I guess I’m not going to draw a conclusion on that yet. Every business has to be prepared for that type of event, and we do talk about it, but the way you survive is to make sure that your fundamental basis of business is strong enough to take that kind of market. And I believe Global Solar is going to be prepared for that.

Q: Prometheus Institute President Travis Bradford has said that thin-film makers would need to be able to profitably sell panels for $1.50 per watt to survive a coming shakeout (see Solar Sector Heading for a Shakeout). I know you don’t make panels, but do you think you will be able to make strings at a low-enough cost for your customers to meet that goal?
B:
Because we [don’t make panels], we are left to estimate the cost of converting strings into modules. But we believe, based on our cost models, we will be able to beat that cost model.... With the new equipment that we have designed for these two new plants, we [expect reduced materials and labor costs]. We’re using virtually the same amount of operators to scale up [to 10 times the capacity] -- we currently have about 150 employees and expect to have 150 to 200 in the Tucson plant.

Q: Before you’re ready to enter new markets, such as the building-integrated solar market, isn’t it going to be a challenge to compete with traditional silicon-based companies, which have higher efficiencies, and low-priced First Solar?
B:
This is really teaching us discipline. We have to compete now; we have to grow now. So the only way we can achieve the goals of growth at this point, with the technology we have, is to beat the cost out of it and compete at that level. This is really going to benefit us when we reach the time where we have a mature BIPV-type product and we have already learned to make it low-cost.
T
: The game is not to really go out and take a shot at a First Solar or anybody else. I think that this market is growing so fast that the demand for solar will need all of us to be available.

Q: You’ve talked about the advantage of experience making your Gen 1 strings. But for Gen 2, you’re saying you’ve got some new technology involved to make it more cost-effective, so isn’t there still a risk? 
B:
Absolutely. There has to be risk. If you don’t take risks, you’ll never make any gains. What we do is we try to minimize that risk so that, for instance, we use a co-evaporation technology to make our copper-indium-gallium-diselenide coating. We’re still going to be using a multisource co-evaporation technology. What we’ve done to the new tools is to add in more control and more flexibility into the process so that we could achieve higher efficiencies and so that we can tighten down the quality of the product. So there are elements of risk in what we’re doing, but we’ve tried to keep it to a fairly manageable level. It’s not as though we’re trying to go to something silly like a nanoparticle-type product.

Q: What about other CIGS competitors like Nanosolar and HelioVolt? What do you think your advantages are over them?
B:
The difference is really our maturity. That’s what differentiates us from everybody out in the marketplace right now. You can’t underestimate the value of experience in this field. Things are not as simple as they might look to someone who’s never done it before. There is something new under every stone you turn over. And we’ve had the benefit of over 10 years now of development at Global Solar. We’ve uncovered a lot of stones.... And not only are we far down the path, but we started on the right path.

Q: Other key differentiators?
B:
Efficiency, stability and usability. The efficiency of the technology and that capability to grow in efficiency; stability of the production process already demonstrated; and usability [because the transportability] is a key differentiation, in that it can be used by, in a broad sense, everybody. It fits into the current process today, into current markets today, and it is really a paradigm shift for future markets.

Q: How much funding have you raised so far?
B:
That’s something we have not discussed. I can say that we’ve never accepted VC funding. Global Solar has been lucky in that we were owned [in our entire 12-year history] by only two groups: Tucson Electric Power for the first 10 years, and then we were sold in April of ’06 to two companies. One of them was Solon AG -- they own 19 percent of our company -- and the remainder is owned by I-Sol Ventures.... We can’t rule out [debt or equity financing] in the future, but up to this point, our current owners have taken care of everything.

Q: Can you talk about your expected revenue?
T:
Not at this time. [Part of the reason is the pricing for thin films isn’t set yet.] We have to get our costs down to the targets you hear from other thin-film companies.

Q: When do you expect to turn a profit?
B:
We expect to be profitable before early 2009.

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